Rep. Melanie Stinnett
Cash on Hand: $50,777.55
Heart of SGF PAC
Cash on Hand: $6,342.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $57,119.55

Rep. Crystal Quade
Cash on Hand: $3,607.91
CRYSTAL PAC
Cash on Hand: $13,719.87
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $17,327.78

Rep. Betsy Fogle
Cash on Hand: $64,446.14
Forward PAC
Cash on Hand: $11,961.67
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $76,407.81

#2 SD 8 Senator Mike Cierpiot is term limited.
GENERAL: LEAN REPUBLICAN

Rep. Keri Ingle
Cash on Hand: $69,304.76
KERI PAC
Cash on Hand: $26,902.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $96,206.76

Former Rep. Dan Stacy
Cash on Hand: $4,798.48
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $4,798.48

Speaker Jon Patterson
Cash on Hand: $262,866.32
Missouri Alliance PAC
Cash on Hand: $1,139,614.56
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $1,402,480.88

#3 SD 34 Senator Tony Luetkemeyer is term limited.
GENERAL: LIKELY REPUBLICAN

Rep. Brenda Shields
Cash on Hand: $93,538.76
Lewis and Clark Leadership PAC
Cash on Hand: $18,709.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $112,247.76

Rep. Sean Pouche
Cash on Hand: $20,689.93
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $20,689.93

Kansas City Councilman Nathan Willett
Cash on Hand: $10,006.43
NextGen North PAC
Cash on Hand: $29,865.85
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $39,872.28

Incumbents Facing Potential Primaries
SD 32 Sen. Jill Carter is seeking re-election
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: LIKELY CARTER

Sen. Jill Carter
Cash on Hand: $31,955.43
Missouri Heritage PAC
Cash on Hand: $20,140.38
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $52,095.81

Rep. Ben Baker
Cash on Hand: $73,474.09
MO Values PAC
Cash on Hand: 20,262.33
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $93.736.42

Open Democrat Safe Primary
#5 SD 4 Sen. Karla May is term limited.
GENERAL: SAFE DEMOCRAT PRIMARY: TOSS UP

Blaine Folsom
Cash on Hand: $ N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $ N/A

Peter Merideth
Cash on Hand: $22,017.65
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $22,017.65

Rep. Steve Butz
Cash on Hand: $104,911.85
Butz STL PAC
Cash on Hand: $31,886.81
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $136,798.66

Gina Mitten
Cash on Hand: $47,259.26
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $47,259.26

Michele Kratky
Cash on Hand: $1,193.59
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $1,193.59

#6 SD 14 Sen. Brian Williams is term limited.
GENERAL: SAFE DEMOCRAT PRIMARY: LEAN PROUDIE

Joe Palm
Cash on Hand: $0.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $0.00

Shaunte Duncan
Cash on Hand: $14,241.89
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $14,241.89

Rep. Raychel Proudie
Cash on Hand: $6,820.86
PROUD PAC
Cash on Hand: N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $6,820.86

Open Republicans Safe Primary
#1 SD 22 Sen. Mary Elizabeth Coleman is retiring
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: LEAN CASTEEL

Rep. David Casteel
Cash on Hand: $29,315.16
Casteel PAC
Cash on Hand: $9,604.26
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $38,919.42

Rep. Renee Reuter
Cash on Hand: $2,918.59
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $2,918.59

Rep. Ken Waller
Cash on Hand: $47,532.91
Building JeffCo Together
Cash on Hand: $26,623.41 ($21,004.41 from Schwadron’s PAC)
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $74,156.32

#2 SD 16 Senator Justin Brown is term limited.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: TOSS UP

Joseph Steelman
Cash on Hand: $38,260.65
Steel Resolve PAC
Cash on Hand: N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $38,260.65

Rep. Bill Hardwick
Cash on Hand: $150,217.58
Missouri Enterprise Fund
Cash on Hand: $37,299.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $187,516.58

Rep. Don Mayhew
Cash on Hand: $37,346.36
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $37,346.36

Rep. Hannah Kelley
Cash on Hand: $50,224.02
Accountability PAC
Cash on Hand: $6,244.17
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $56,468.19

Rep. Jeff Knight
Cash on Hand: $78,518.80
JAK PAC
Cash on Hand:$42,121.13
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $120,639.93

#3 SD 6 Senator Mike Bernskoetter is term limited.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: TOSS UP

Ike Skelton
Cash on Hand:$ N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $ N/A

Former Rep. Lisa Thomas
Cash on Hand: $42,142
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $42,142

Rep. Rudy Veit
Cash on Hand: $61,256.34
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $61,256.34

Councilman Derrick Spicer
Cash on Hand: $38,096.92
Spicer for Senate PAC
Cash on Hand: $1,595.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $39,691.92

#4 SD 18 Senator Cindy O’Laughlin is term limited.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: LEAN GRAFF

Sarah Graff
Cash on Hand: N/A
Rural Missouri Values
Cash on Hand: N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $N/A

Rep. Greg Sharpe
Cash on Hand: $16,049.64
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $16,049.64

#5 SD 28 Senator Sandy Crawford is term limited.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: LIKELY POLLITT

Rep. Brad Pollitt
Cash on Hand: $64,136.84
Rocker P Brand PAC
Cash on Hand: $29,292.85
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $93,429.69

Dr. Sam Alexander
Cash on Hand: $20,000.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $20,000.00

The post 2026 State Senate Races: April Quarterly Reports appeared first on The Missouri Times.

PRIMARY: LEAN GREGORY 

This will be the biggest race in the state. You have a race with a rural Missourian vs. a suburban, a farmer vs. a pastor, and two men who couldn’t be more personally different. 

Rep. Gregory starts off as the favorite as he has a more than 3 to 1 cash advantage, and a great pedigree for that district. Well, a great pedigree for that district until it starts having cul de sacs, then the district advantage switches to Rep. Richey. 

The district breaks down with 37.8% of the vote in Clay County 51% in rural Missourah, and Ray County that has some of both at 12.3%. 

While Rep. Gregory probably has the better back story, and will have the most money, Rep. Richey is a stellar politician, and will likely have some outside groups come in to get him enough money to run a full campaign and his base is going easier to door knock simply because they live on top of each other.

Bottom line: This one will be close to the end, the outside factor could be if Rep. Gregory could raise enough money to buy the race, and that is possible. Imagine being MU if he loses…The flagship council, should just lower the flag. 

Rep. Kurtis Gregory
Total Raised this Cycle: $169,523
Cash on Hand: $ 238,762
The Wonderdog PAC
Cash on Hand: $161,077
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $399,839

\Rep. Doug Richey
Total Raised this Cycle: $102,713
Cash on Hand: $114,621
Cultivating Freedom PAC
Cash on Hand: $25,942
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $140,563

#2 SD23 R+6.08% Senator Eigel is term-limited. 

PRIMARY: LEAN CHRISTOFANELLI GENERAL: LIKELY REPUBLICAN 

Big race in eastern St. Charles County this summer to replace gubernatorial candidate Bill Eigel. With the huge cash on hand lead Christofanelli starts out as the clear favorite. 

Christofanelli goes back to the early days of helping Eigel’s runs, hitting a lot of doors for his O.G. operation. In the House he has built a lengthy conservative resume being the juice to pass the largest education reform bill in state history. You have to believe that $450k grows quickly after session for someone one a short list of #moleg Republicans who could be elected Governor one day. 

Rep. Schnelting has had the same conversion to being anti-tort reform that many House members have when they have trouble fundraising for Senate. He has a good group of volunteers, and having over $100,000 in the bank assures that he will be a legitimate contender in the race. He has already started the dark tactics in the race assuring it will be an expensive and nasty one this summer. 

Rich Chrismer is a longtime St. Charles County elected official. His name ID alone means that he will grab at least 10% of the vote. He will have to catch some breaks to win, but in the end he may swing the race to one of the other two. 

Bottom line: There is an amount of money a candidate can raise that makes them tough to beat. I suspect Phil is going to try and find out what that number is. 

Rep. Phil Christofanelli
Total Raised this Cycle: $157,043
Cash on Hand: $255,468
Gladius PAC
Cash on Hand: $198,601
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $454,069

Rep. Adam Schnelting
Total Raised this Cycle: $96,962
Cash on Hand: $119,621
Protect our Kids PAC
Cash on Hand: $47,047
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $166,668

Former County Elections Official: Rich Chrismer
Total Raised this Cycle: $17,110
Cash on Hand: $11,964

#3 SD33 R+57.16% Senator Eslinger is seeking re-election.

PRIMARY: TOSS UP

Senator Eslinger leaving this summer to run DESE didn’t change some of the dynamics of this race as much as you might think. Rep. Brad Hudson has already announced he would be challenging her in the new district. When she stepped out of the race she insisted on Rep. Travis Smith to step in. 

The new 33rd is about 45% Branson and Stone County which you think would be kind to Hudson. From around Forsyth to the east which makes up about 55% of the district would be logical Travis Smith country.

Hudson is a pastor and has been working religious circles throughout the district. He has done a good job fundraising, and you might expect him to broaden his views on non social issues as he runs for Senate like his strategic vote on 340b. 

Rep. Smith has hit the ground hard on fundraising and will have a big quarter to report in June. He has an incredible amount of contacts in the West Plains through Gainesville area, and his new state rep. district includes the eastern part of Taney County. 

Bottom line: Rep. Smith can play to his eastern side of the district advantages and try to buy some name ID in the Branson market, but he is going to have to raise the money to do it. This will be a race where in August you will be able to tell the direction of the Senate from how this race turns out. 

Rep. Travis Smith
Total Raised this Cycle: $5,250
Cash on Hand: $237
Southern Missouri Conservatives PAC
Cash on Hand: $2,513
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $2,750

Rep. Brad Hudson
Total Raised this Cycle: $102,176
Cash on Hand: $106,117
Brad PAC
Cash on Hand: $3,900
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $110,017

#4 SD3 R+35.8% Senator Gannon is not seeking re-election.

PRIMARY: LEAN HENDERSON

This race breaks down as JeffCO vs. the saints of St. Francois and Ste. Genevieve. Rep. Courtway is from JeffCo that makes up 31.5% of the new district, while Mike Henderson is from north St. Francois, which along with Ste. Genevieve makes up 35.5% of the district with the other 31.9% of the district. That 31.9% of the district is probably where the race gets decided.

You initially would think that Rep. Henderson would have a more natural claim to the votes in Crawford and Washington Counties, and there could be an increased turnout from the CD3 race. However, you prolly need to poll that to make sure. 

Rep. Courtway has some big walleted special interests that could come in for her and she may need it as there will be a lot of Farmington donors who are  likely to step up for the hometown man. 

Bottom line: Henderson starts off with an advantage because he would have a better run in Washington and Crawford Counties. However, with both candidates hovering around $100,000 right now this is a race several groups could influence. 

Rep. Mike Henderson
Total Raised this Cycle: $344,801
Cash on Hand: $92,632
Leadbelt PAC
Cash on Hand: $17,288
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $109,920

Rep. Cyndi Buchheit-Courtway
Total Raised this Cycle: $48,309
Cash on Hand: $57,715
Missouri Matters PAC
Cash on Hand: $34,642
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $92,357

#5 SD15 R+7.72% Senator Koenig is term limited.
PRIMARY: LEAN GREGORY GENERAL: LEAN REPUBLICAN

The West County St. Louis race to replace Senator Koenig is at a simmer waiting for the summer. All three are out knocking doors and all three can give you a pitch as to why they should win. With Bowling he can claim a base in Wildwood, but local government can earn you some enemies too. He has some business connections that he has worked to put together over $100,000 so far. However, that $100,000 includes a loan to himself, and history has shown those loans rarely get spent. 

County Councilman Harder starts off with some solid name ID in the state’s most expensive media market and probably does have the highest floor in the race. His fundraising has never had to be that aggressive on the county council, and it hasn’t picked up thus far. 

Former Rep. Gregory is a top tier political talent that has put together over $150k thus far and is out on the doors. You would think he would be behind in name ID to the two local electeds, but that is not the case thus far. 

The winner will have a legitimate race on their hands with former Drury executive Joe Pereles. He is perhaps the best recruit of either party this cycle. If abortion is on the November ballot Pereles will make this race a toss up. 

Bottom line: Gregory could run away with this early, but needs more money to make that happen. If he doesn’t the question will be which one of his opponents can afford to attack him? Until there is an answer he is the front runner. 

Former Rep. David Gregory
Total Raised this Cycle: $226,672
Cash on Hand: $130,364
Show Me Growth PAC
Cash on Hand: $29,251
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $159,615

St. Louis County Councilman Mark Harder
Total Raised this Cycle: $69,339
Cash on Hand: $55,226
St. Louis Conservative Leadership PAC
Cash on Hand: $N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $55,226

Wildwood Mayor Jim Bowlin
Total Raised this Cycle: $190,650
Cash on Hand: $121,647
Conservatives for Accountability
Cash on Hand: $N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $121,647

Joe Pereles
Total Raised this Cycle: $467,261
Cash on Hand: $396,388
Fearless PAC
Cash on Hand:$26,583
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $422,971

#6 SD27 R+48.44% Senator Rehder is running for Lt. Governor. 

PRIMARY: LEAN BURGER 

The new SD27 brings the district farther to the west, and incumbent Senator Holly Rehder is running for Lt. Governor. The race to replace her is Rep. Jamie Burger, Rep. Chris Dinkins, and political newcomer Jacob Turner. While the district swings west picking up Iron and Reynolds County it’s still around 85% Cape centered. 

Rep. Burger was a late entrant to the race, but has hit the ground running. Lining up a good segment of the local Cape Girardeau Republicans behind him. He has been dominant on the fundraising front as well, by May 8th being near $270,000. 

Rep. Dinkins has an issue being from the 15% of the district that is not Cape centered. She has amassed a good amount of money topping $215k However, $100k of that is a loan. She can fit the district well, and has the issue of Rep. Burger formerly being elected to the Scott County Commission as a Democrat. The question will be does she have enough money to get herself known and attack Burger?

Turner is a first responder and clearly a hustler on the fundraising front. He is a big Eigel guy and wants to sniff contention to try and pick up some trial attorney money. He will poll a sizable number of votes, but probably needs to catch a lot of breaks to win. 

Bottom line: Burger is gonna hit $400,000 Dinkins is going to have to spend her current money to define herself then hit him. If she gets the money she might have a path. Until that money arrives it leans to Burger. 

Rep. Jamie Burger
Cash on Hand: $135,409
Bootheel Values PAC
Cash on Hand: $86,614
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $222,023

Rep. Chris Dinkins
Cash on Hand: $184,095
Red Hawk PAC
Cash on Hand: $35,638
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $219733

Jacob Turner
Cash on Hand: $70,891
Faith and Family PAC
Cash on Hand: $39,167
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $110,058

#7 SD7 D+17.74% Senator Razer has taken an appointment. 

PRIMARY: TOSS UP 

There seemed to be a seamless transition being put in place for Pat Contreras, a great guy, and former State Treasurer candidate to replace Senator Razer after his PSC appointment. However, there was an uproar from women in Kansas City to not see a coronation, and Rep. Lewis is in the race. 

Bottom line: Women have an advantage over men in Democratic primaries, maybe more than usual this year. Pat is going to have to raise a great deal of money and run a stellar campaign to offset that this summer. 

Pat Contreras
Total Raised this Cycle: $
Cash on Hand: $n/a
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $

Patty Lewis
Total Raised this Cycle: $65,892
Cash on Hand: $47,598
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $47,598

#8 SD31 R+29.09% Senator Brattin is seeking re-election.

PRIMARY: LEAN BRATTIN 

This is potentially the most interesting race of the summer, unless it isn’t. Senator Brattin did well for himself when the anti-landfill deal was worked out, and he is the incumbent. When he first ran for Senate he became a supporter of the trial bar, and they became a big supporter of his helping him win by a wide margin in ‘20. 

Now he faces a twin problem in his new district. It’s still anchored by Cass County with 62% of the vote, but he will have to split that with incumbent State Rep. Mike Haffner. Then from Johnson County with 27% of the vote is Dan Houx with a big fundraising lead. 

Haffner is an air force veteran with a strong following and it was actually his bill that passed on the landfill deal. He is a hard charger on the campaign trail with a great story to tell. 

Rep. Houx’s family literally founded Warrensburg and he will do very well in Johnson County, and has the money to go in and spend heavily in Cass County. 

Bottom line: Brattin took 52% in Cass County last cycle in an open seat primary. If Haffner takes the same amount of votes Bondon did in ‘20 then it’s a real race. If he can’t he could be a spoiler. However, Brattin is the incumbent and now with legislation to tout so it leans his way until the attacks start flying. 

Senator Rick Brattin
Total Raised this Cycle: $340,083
Cash on Hand: $54,254
True Patriot PAC
Cash on Hand: $20,157
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $74,411

Rep. Mike Haffner
Total Raised this Cycle: $41,625
Cash on Hand: $112,215
CLCP PAC
Cash on Hand: $37,343
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $149,558

Rep. Dan Houx
Total Raised this Cycle: $455,941
Cash on Hand: $119,181
H-PAC
Cash on Hand: $221,590
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $340,771

#9 SD13 D+63.2% Senator Mosley is seeking re-election.

PRIMARY: LEAN MOSLEY

This primary will be interesting as it was late developing. Senator Mosley won a hard fought race four years ago, and this time will be even better funded. She has a long time St. Louis political machine behind her, and remember very few incumbents lose. 

Rep. Nickson-Clark is a fresh face, who is a cancer survivor and has proven to be highly energetic. She is touting her ability to knock the district this summer.

Bottom line: Rep. Nickson-Clark has a shot, but will need money to do it, and it’s hard to see where that comes from. However, if it comes that changes things. 

Senator Mosley
Total Raised this Cycle: $148,658
Cash on Hand: $79,573
PAC
Cash on Hand: $n/a
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $79,573

Rep. Chantelle Nickson-Clark
Total Raised this Cycle: $20,933
Cash on Hand: $96.45
Chantelle PAC
Cash on Hand: $n/a
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $96.45

#10 SD29 R+54.04% Senator Moon is seeking re-election.

PRIMARY: LIKELY MOON 

Senator Moon is seeking re-election, but in a significantly new district including the new population center of the district in Christian County. He is being challenged by Ozark businesswoman Susan Haralson. 

Moon will be very tough to beat. He has a history of receiving big contributions from trial attorneys, and has built a solid reputation as a conservative. He will have to get acquainted with some new constituents in Christian County, but he has been a proven vote getter since his first race mostly because he is a nice guy. 

Haralson has a local base there in the Springfield suburbs, but the question will be if the power brokers who encouraged her to make the race show up with the money to fund the race. 

Bottom line: It’s almost unheard of to beat an incumbent in a primary without getting to the incumbent’s extreme, and this is Mike Moon. 

Senator Moon
Total Raised this Cycle: $324,963
Cash on Hand: $57,009
Life and Liberty MO PAC
Cash on Hand: $15,042
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $72,051

Susan Haralson
Total Raised this Cycle: $N/A
Cash on Hand: $N/A
Present Day Conservatives
Cash on Hand: $N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $N/A

#11 SD11 R+4.06% Senator Rizzo is term limited.

PRIMARY:  LEAN McMULLEN GENERAL: TOSS-UP

Harry Truman’s hometown will host two top tier Senate races in ‘24. The first is a primary on the Republican side with freshman State Rep. Aaron McMullen making the jump to the Senate race and facing off against two candidates who have previously ran for state Senate in Joe Nicola and David Martin.

McMullen is a veteran who ran a full tough race to win his House seat in ‘22. Nicola is a pastor who ran a spirited race in SD8 in ‘22. He had a strong showing against an incumbent last cycle, but in the 8th, not the 11th. Nicola is a serious threat in this race. 

David Martin is a conservative candidate who has ran before. I tend to think he picks the pocket of Nicola more than McMullen.

The winner will face off against Rep. Robbie Sauls. Look it’s obvious that he hasn’t had the best last month of session, but it’s also true that prior to that he has built a solid reputation that should guarantee he will be well funded, and if he knocks his doors this race will be a toss up. 

Bottom line: McMullen will have to spend all this money in the primary, which with that cash advantage he should win that primary. After that, this will be the top Senate race in the fall, with which ballot the abortion IP lands on maybe making the difference.
Rep. Aaron McMullen
Total Raised this Cycle: $132,472
Cash on Hand: $66,931

Independence PAC
Cash on Hand: $85,101
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $152,032
Joe Nicola
Total Raised this Cycle: $59,334
Cash on Hand: $42,198
Truth and Light
Cash on Hand: $N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND:$42,198

David Martin
Total Raised this Cycle: $3,643
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $222

Rep. Robbie Sauls
Total Raised this Cycle: $384,944
Cash on Hand: $158,514
Independence Leadership PAC
Cash on Hand: $185,701
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $

#12 SD9 D+62.8% Senator Washington is seeking re-election.

PRIMARY: LEAN WASHINGTON GENERAL: SAFE DEMOCRAT

Senator Washington was looking to cruise to re-election then former Rep. and then Kansas City City Councilman Brandon Ellington stepped up to attempt a return to Jeff City. 

You never go wrong by betting on an incumbent senator to return to the Senate, and Senator Washington starts the summer as the clear favorite, however, she will have to raise money, rely on Freedom Inc., and take him seriously because Brandon can get votes.  

Bottom line: Incumbent Senators don’t often lose re-election. 

Senator Barb Washington
Total Raised this Cycle: $76,968 (OCT)
Cash on Hand: $77,020 (OCT)
Eastside Forward PAC
Cash on Hand: $70,446
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $147,466

Former Rep. Brandon Ellington
Total Raised this Cycle: $N/A
Cash on Hand: $N/A

#13 SD17 D+7.74% Senator Arthur is term-limited.
LEAN DEMOCRAT

This race was originally going to be Maggie vs. Clay County Auditor Victor Hurlbert. However, he dropped out of the race last summer and pretty well endorsed her. Then it looked like Hurlbert was back in the race when proven vote getter Clay County Commissioner Jerry Nolte jumped into the race. 

Neurrenbern has been doing everything possible to lock this down, and is still the favorite in a Democratic trending district, but Jerry Nolte knows how to get votes, and after the primary this race will vault to #2 on the list. 

Bottom line: This went from an easy win for the Democrats, to a race that they should still win but they will have to keep an eye on until election day. Jerry Nolte ain’t one to sleep on. 

Rep. Maggie Nurrenbern
Total Raised this Cycle: $264,679
Cash on Hand: $297,159
Northland Forward
Cash on Hand: $149,601
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $446,760

Clay County Presiding Commissioner Jerry Nolte
Total Raised this Cycle: $7,950
Cash on Hand: $20,930
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $20,930

#14 SD19 D+13.38% Senator Rowden is term-limited.

SAFE DEMOCRAT

It probably really didn’t matter who if anyone filed on the Republican line, once Webber cleared the Democratic primary field he was heading to the Senate, and he will be a tremendous senator. 

Former Rep. Stephen Webber
Total Raised this Cycle: $504,419
Cash on Hand: $368,934
Homefront PAC
Cash on Hand: $395,337
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $764,271

#15 SD1 D+8.08% Senator Beck is seeking re-election.

LIKELY DEMOCRAT

Senator Beck has done an incredible job of solidifying the district behind him. Those gray haired white guys still seem to be able to get a few votes. 

Senator Doug Beck
Total Raised this Cycle: $328,693
Cash on Hand: $398,198
DougPac
Cash on Hand: $476,488
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $874,686

#16 SD5 D+ 80.86% Senator Roberts is seeking re-election. 

SAFE DEMOCRAT

If you want to see the difference between twitter and real life look at all the big tweeting that was done about the opponent Senator Roberts was gonna have…only to be unopposed in real life. 

Senator Steven Roberts
Total Raised this Cycle: $105,952
Cash on Hand: $1,673
STL Democratic Coalition PAC
Cash on Hand: $35,297
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $36,970

#17 SD25 R+54.04% Senator Bean is seeking re-election.

SAFE REPUBLICAN

Senator Bean earns this cycle’s designation as the safest senator on the ballot. 

Senator Jason Bean
Total Raised this Cycle: $327,035
Cash on Hand: $104,628
Conservative Leadership for Southeast Missouri
Cash on Hand: $
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $104,628

Scott Faughn

Scott Faughn is the publisher of The Missouri Times, owner of the Clayton Times in Clayton; SEMO Times in Poplar Bluff; and host of the only statewide political television show, This Week in Missouri Politics.

The post TWMP Column: 24 State Senate Tipsheet appeared first on The Missouri Times.

Of the 17 coming back the senate looks like:
Senate Democrats: 7 (including one running for Congress)
Rowden Republicans: 5
Eigel Republicans: 5 (including two running for Congress)

Then add in the safe seats with no real opposition and you have.
Rowden Republicans: 10 (Bernskoetter, O’Laughlin, Crawford, White, and Luetkemeyer)
Senate Democrats: 9 (May and Williams)
Eigel Republicans: 5

Then add in the three incumbents who have had candidates recruited against them and you have:
Rowden Republicans: 13 (Hough, Cierpiot, and Brown)
Senate Democrats: 9
Eigel Republicans: 5

Then there are 7 open seats. 6 highly likely to be republican and 1 highly likely to be democrat. Looking at the 6 open seats as of now we predict:

2023 Prediction:
Rowden Republicans: 17
Senate Democrats: 10
Eigel Republicans: 7

We have ranked the top ten races by competitiveness below.

#1 SD 2 Senator Onder is term-limited. PRIMARY: TOSS-UP
This is the top race, it’s a big time showdown between two legislators who have taken different paths to this primary since the day they were elected.
Rep. Schorer has from the beginning cast himself with the right wing in every possible rhetorical fashion. It has paid off with the endorsement of Senator Onder and the advantage in grassroots folks in a district that is full of subdivisions where door knocking is possible. He mixed in a lot of bills designed to generate headlines, and twitter likes, but also helped with the GM bill to help keep his constituents employed.
However, this might be the cycle where the rhetoric that has helped him consolidate that support might have some push back. He would be the likely leader of the conservative caucus if he wins, and while that will definitely help him it could also make him a target. However, Rep. Schroer has a card to play if he is targeted that others don’t, Rick Pogue. Mr. Pogue is already $200,000 into the race, and I understand could go deeper if he wants.
Rep. Wiemann is the number two man in house leadership and has the support of the business community. He has carried several very large pieces of complicated legislation during his time in the house, and has a large group of traditional republican support in St. Charles County.
He has deeper roots in the county and has been raising more in district donations. Rep. Wiemann will run as a proven conservaitve and if he has the money to sell that message it will be a close race.
Redistricting was kind to Rep. Schroer, as it kept his home in the district, but no one cared about his residency a year ago and likely wouldn’t now. While it was also helpful to Rep. Wiemann, if he could have picked an area to lose it likely would have been Wentzville.
As long as the business community has his back the way they are claiming they plan to then this will be the most expensive and toughest fought races of the cycle.

House Speaker Pro Tem Rep. John Wiemann
Contributions this cycle: $83,344
Cash on hand: $146,432
JW Leadership Fund PAC
Cash on hand: $86,881
Total cash on hand for the race: $233,313
Rep. Nick Schroer
Contributions this cycle: $32,781
Cash on hand: $122,149
1776 PAC
Cash on hand: $193,002
Total cash on hand for the race: $315,151

#2 SD 22 Senator Paul Wieland is term-limited. PRIMARY: TOSS-UP
Now that the race is set it comes in as number two and probably stays there. Reps. Coleman, Shaul, and Roden along with former Rep. Roorda is a unique four way to say the least.
Coleman raised the most money of the quarter with $21,000 out-pacing Roorda with $14,000, and Shaul with $5,000 while Roden didn’t report raising any money. Also keep in mind they raised this with the prospect of the sitting speaker entering the race. Now when you count what Roorda put into the race himself he is leading the cash on hand race by about $35,000 over Coleman, and $85,000 over Shaul.
I saw a preliminary poll showing that Roorda was in the lead, which I would have no problem believing as it’s probably name ID more than anything. The question for Roorda is how much will republican primary voters hold the fact he has been a democrat against him. He has already invested heavily in his race, and I understand that he is willing to go much further as the race unfolds. If he just gets 75% of the union members currently holding a union card to vote for him, then he can win a four way with $250,000.
Coleman will do well on the doors, and has a track record of hitting them. She has some claim to some large donors, it will be interesting to see if and when they enter the race for her. This will be a really interesting case study to see if being supported by the 100 PAC turns into real money, or on the other side if being supported by the 100 PAC just makes people give real money against you.
Shaul is in the race for some of those traditional republican voters. Think about your folks who were democrats but changed their party allegiance 20 years ago, not with Trump 8 years ago. He has his supporters in the capitol lobbying corps, but like with everyone in a four way race will have to show he can win before he gets those dollars.
Roden is gonna run as the public safety guy, but that vote will at least be split with Roorda. His wife is also running for county office, but they are both being dogged by residency issues because they have been paying property taxes in Cole County instead of JeffCo. Roden will have to raise some money to be more than someone who siphons votes from Shaul in his house district, and Roorda in the rest of the county.
To me the questions are: Can Coleman come out of session and establish herself as the front runner so that money from all corners comes to her? Will JeffCo voters forgive Roorda for being a democrat too long? Can Shaul get someone to invest in his campaign in big enough dollars to attract more money and get to $400,000? Will Roden raise money and become a top tier factor in the race to take some of Shaul’s votes, or just siphon off Roorda votes?

Rep. Mary Elizabeth Coleman
Contributions this cycle: $105,390
Cash on hand: $81,989
Conservative Solutions for Missouri PAC
Cash on hand: $15,315
Total cash on hand for the race: $97,304
Rep. Dan Shaul
Contributions this cycle: $16,315
Cash on hand: $55,841
JeffCo Vision PAC
Cash on hand: $76,192
Total cash on hand for the race: $132,033
Former State Representative Jeff Roorda
Contributions this cycle: $14,157.
Cash on hand: $139,724
Rep. Shane Roden
Contributions this cycle: $3,171
Cash on hand: $3,475

#3 SD 26 Senator Dave Schatz is term-limited. PRIMARY: TOSS-UP
The 26th has become a flash point for the varying wings of the republican party in a new district that brings in more Missourah and less Missouri.
Ben Brown is a St. Louis businessman who was a vocal opponent of mask orders in St. Louis. In the old district with two Franklin County opponents his St. Louis County vote could have won the race. However, the new district is only 4% St. Louis where Warren, Osage, and Gasconade Counties make up nearly 40% of the district. He will be a grassroots focused candidate similar to Senator Koenig. While the geography didn’t do him any favors having two primary opponents who are competing for similar voters certainly did.
Brown has the support of the conservative caucus in the race, and that could add up to a good deal of money and a win as it did for Senators Moon and Brattin last year. However, I suspect the new RightPath PAC will be spending heavily in the district as well.
One of the likely beneficiaries of the new PAC is likely Bob Jones, a Franklin County businessman and close friend of Gregg Holbrock. He has taken to the trail in a big way zooming into the fundraising lead. He is legitimately well known in civic circles in Washington, and a top contender.
The last candidate in was Rep. Nate Tate. He is the only one in the race that has won elections, and if he can poll high enough he could put together some fundraising from labor groups who are also well populated in Franklin and Warren Counties.
If these three candidates all cannibalize Franklin County the race will be won in the other counties, and in those counties, money will be key.

Ben Brown
Contributions this cycle: $20,317
Cash on hand: $94,470
BB Freedom Fund PAC
Cash on Hand: $0
Total cash on hand for the race: $94,470
Bob Jones
Contributions this cycle: $151,163
Cash on hand: $135,022
Conservative Leadership for Missouri
Cash on hand: $23,400
Total cash on hand for the race: $158,422
Rep. Nate Tate
Contributions this cycle: $7,800
Cash on hand: $12,213

#4 SD 10 Senator Jeannie Riddle is retiring. PRIMARY: TOSS-UP
This race just gets more interesting all the time. The district the judges drew was almost tailor made for Rep. Pietzman to run in, and at the end of filing he did. He hails from Lincoln County which will make up 40% of the new district. The 10th also has Pike County to add to Lincoln County’s natural geography advantage of around 48%. Pietzman has geography and can run on a record of very conservative voting.
His opponent from the start was going to be one of the party’s rising stars Rep. Travis Fitzwater from Callaway County. Callaway makes up a fourth of the district where he is very popular, and should do well. He should also be the fundraising leader of the race, and he will need it to go pick off votes in Wentzville and Troy.
Montgomery County’s favorite son also jumped into the race in Jeff Porter. Montgomery County is around 8% of the district so he will have to try and pull votes from Lincoln County and Wentzville as well. He is going to have strong support from the public school community, and seems willing to put some of his money into the race. He has the ability to write himself a check. However, Porter could also explore some labor money.
Speaking of Wentzville, former Rep. Bryan Spencer has been running hard for this seat for a while. He loaned himself $100,000 but will have to pick up the fundraising pace.
The fifth candidate didn’t raise any money, Judge Mike Carter of Wentzville loaned himself half a million to start the campaign. Now who knows if he will spend it, but he will add some spice to the race for sure.
He will need all half a million to compete in a district that stretches two media markets. A third is in the Jeff City market and two-thirds is in the very expensive St. Louis media market. I think that gives Rep. Fitzwater his playbook. Run up a big number in Callaway County, and spend big to get a share of the St. Louis media market votes.
I think this race will also be one of the top targets for your Right Path supporters. The bottom line is that if you are from Lincoln, Callaway or Montgomery, you identify with your county and voters tend to be more parochial. If you live in Wentzville, there is a pretty good chance you are from somewhere else and just happened to move there. Point being, Wentzville voters are definitely up for grabs with the right candidate and right message.

Rep. Randy Pietzman
Contributions this cycle: $0
Cash on hand: $1,666
Rep. Travis Fitzwater
Contributions this cycle: $13,059
Cash on hand: $103,595
Kingdom Leadership PAC
Cash on hand: $2,341
Total cash on hand for the race: $105,936
Former Rep. Bryan Spencer
Contributions this cycle: $5,800
Cash on hand: $148,772
Rep. Jeff Porter
Contributions this cycle: $2,150
Cash on hand: $24,289
MOWAR
Cash on hand: $7,621
Total cash on hand for the race: $31,910
Judge Mike Carter
Contributions this cycle: $n/a
Cash on hand: $500,000

#5 SD 20 Senator Eric Burlson is running for congress. PRIMARY: TOSS-UP
This will be a big time primary. Rep. Trent has been planning for a senate run for a couple years, and has the ground game already built and the activists already committed. The question will come down to money. Now he doesn’t need as much money as Gelner, but he will have to be at least competitive with him.
Gelner burst on the scene with a monster quarter last year, and followed it up with another solid quarter this year. He is a businessman with clearly a great rolodex that he put to use. He is in the beer business, not the king of beers, but beer business, and clearly has the ability to put on a top tier race.
It’s still too early to tell, but I think Rep. Trent starts off with the advantage. He has ran before, and has a long relationship with area activists that he is using. The key will be the money for him. For Gelner it will be how well he takes to campaigning and can he keep raising the money.
The district changed a lot as Christian and Greene grew too much to say together. Barton and Dade make up 15% of the district and won’t see as much attention. Greene County will be the major part of the district, but Webster County makes up nearly a fourth of the district and is pretty fired up right now.

Rep. Curtis Trent
Contributions this cycle: $23,019
Cash on hand: $202,312
417 PAC
Cash on hand: $9,690
Total cash on hand for the race: $212,002
Brian Gelner
Contributions this cycle: $30,259
Cash on hand: $288,820
Missouri Common Sense PAC
Cash on hand: $87,476
Total cash on hand for the race: $376,296

#6 SD 12 Senator Dan Hegeman i1s retiring. PRIMARY: TOSS UP
This will be a big time race, and really for the first time I can remember there will be a real primary in the GREAT northwest. The district was stretched east to bring in Livingston County and Rep. Rusty Black. He has all the ag credentials and has Axiom behind him. I’ve said for months that the candidate that Axiom chooses here will have a huge advantage. SD 12 is patient zero when it comes to Jeff Roe’s national conglomerate. Rep. Black is their man and they’ll work aggressively to make sure he is their state senator. There’s 19 counties in this district, meaning you can’t possibly start from scratch to get to know people. Rep. Black is a former Ag teacher and he knows the FFA advisor past and present in every town of more than 300 people in Northwest Missouri. That’s a good grassroots network and the right type of people that you’ll want behind you when you’re in hand-to-hand combat in a senate district that’s as large as some European countries.
I have to assume that there will be a fundraising push for him once session ends, and just based on the history of the district I’d say Rep. Black starts off as the slight favorite until more of the race shakes out.
Rep. Eggleston is more centrally located in the district and his house district takes in about a fourth of the primary votes. He has a significant cash on hand advantage with some money loaned to his campaign. He has a voting record that can appeal to conservatives and has been working the district the longest. If he can build on his war chest and spend the money he loaned himself this will be a real race.
Former Rep. Johnson got pulled into the district when they drew in Buchanan, and he probably has the best connections in Andrew County, the largest vote prize in the primary. As a firefighter he can make a play for labor money, and maybe could just drill down on that St. Joseph media market. It will be interesting to see what factor Delus is before the race is over.

Rep. J. Eggleston
Contributions this cycle: $4,119
Cash on hand: $179,359
Grand River PAC
Cash on hand: $1,443
Total cash on hand for the race: $180,802
Rep. Rusty Black
Contributions this cycle: $5,794
Cash on hand: $13,986
Great Northwest PAC
Cash on hand: $1,005
Total cash on hand for the race: $14,991
Former Rep. Delus Johnson
Contributions this cycle: $44,527
Cash on hand: $45,905

#7 SD 16 Senator Justin Brown is seeking re-election. PRIMARY: LIKELY BROWN
Basically all of the folks in the Rowden caucus in the senate had primary opponents recruited against them, Senator Brown got the biggest challenge in incumbent Rep. Suzie Pollock. That combined with one of the worst drawn districts on a poorly drawn map and Senator Brown has a longer summer than he planned.
The Pollock name goes back to her husband who is a former representative and current commissioner in Laclede County, but is going to have to have some help as she has never proven to be a prolific fundraiser. In fact of her $29,000 raised this quarter $25,000 of that was a loan from herself. However, in a pretty surprising development Senator Eigel wrote a check to her campaign. Which is quite surprising to me as he was none too happy about folks from St. Joseph funding his opponent two summers ago. However, I understand that check was written before Rep. Pollock announced for senate and while she was planning to run for the house against Rep. Jeff Knight.
The new district’s make up is pretty well pitted with Phelps and Laclede being roughly a fourth of the district each. Maries and Dent are very close Phelps in every way and are roughly extensions of Phelps where Pulaski is pretty well split between the two, and Wright (mostly because of roads) is off to itself. Leaving Brown with a geography advantage of roughly 15%.
You would think that these counties would be inexpensive media markets, but that isn’t really the case. Rolla is in the St. Louis media market while Maries in the Jeff City market, but two thirds of the district is in the Springfield media market, and won’t be cheap especially with US Senate candidates trying to buy every second in republican primary vote rich southwest Missouri.
There is a very active right wing club in Lebanon and they will work for Pollock, but that is unlikely to overcome what is expected to be an enormous financial advantage for Brown.
Senator Brown’s race is likely to now become a stand for the senate and about the direction of the party. I think the result will be a mountain of money and resources that come to his defense in a race that now has more meaning than just SD16.

Sen. Justin Brown
Contributions this cycle: $36,350
Cash on hand: $100,010
JB PAC
Cash on hand: $100,117
Total cash on hand for the race: $200,128
Rep. Suzie Pollock
Contributions this cycle: $29,750
Cash on hand: $34,501

#8 SD 24 Senator Jill Schupp is retiring. GENERAL: LIKELY MCCREERY
The 24th changed quite a bit, now stretching all the to the JeffCo line and I would have thought that it would have made the district more republican, but in fact it made the district more democrat but cutting out some of the more republican parts of Chesterfield and adding the trending democratic Town and Country area.
While she avoided a primary Rep. McCreery the southward swing of the district brought her two opponents for the general. George Hruza and Brett Schneck.
Hruza could spend on the race, and he has political ambitions that extend past the state senate. He has hired David Barklage and Jamey Murphy for the race, so it will be run well. However, the head winds are real for a republican in St. Louis County.
With ‘22 looking like a good year for republicans this isn’t likely a blow out, but unless something changes the dynamic I’d expect a comfortable win for McCreery.

Rep. Tracy McCreery
Contributions this cycle: $29,986
Cash on hand: $531,231
Serve Missouri PAC
Cash on hand: $44,896
Total cash on hand for the race: $576,100
George Hruza
Contributions this cycle: $11,197
Cash on hand: $92,443
Brett Schenck
Contributions this cycle: $n/a
Cash on hand: $n/a

#9 SD 30 Senator Lincoln Hough is seeking re-election. PRIMARY: LIKELY HOUGH
Probably no senator in the state is as popular with the folks back home as Senator Hough. With the likelihood that he will ascend to Appropriations chair next year and in the district home to a university his re-election has transcended from a political cause to a civic cause.
His opponent had to resign from the city council when she filed so she is not just some random opponent and it wouldn’t surprise me if Senator Hough had found a way to be a smart ass and piss off a few folks back home, combined with the right wing club who hates everyone all the time, but even with those factors this has all the look of an annoyance more than a serious threat.
There is no general this time, but four years from now look for Rep. Crystal Quade to make this a very competitive general election for the democrats.

Sen. Lincoln Hough
Contributions this cycle: $141,039
Cash on hand: $292,338
Lincoln PAC
Cash on hand: $294,881
Total cash on hand for the race: $587,219
Angela Romine
Contributions this cycle: $n/a
Cash on hand: $n/a

#10 SD 8 Senator Mike Cierpiot is seeking re-election. PRIMARY: SAFE CIERPIOT
Senator Cierpiot was another of the senate incumbents who had a candidate recruited against him. The Cierpiot name has been on the ballot in the Lee’s Summit area for decades, and winning for decades.
Today anytime your in office, your gonna get your share of grief, and there is no doubt some appetite to attack any incumbent, but I’m as certain that Orta was out by a full step as I am that if this race gets anywhere close he will have more than enough money to make this race over long before election day.
Now four years from now, if the current trends continue, look for Rep. Ingle to make a serious run at this district.
Bottom line: I’m sure there will be a social media stir about this race, but without some money, serious money spent attacking him, that’s likely all this will be.

Senator Mike Cierpiot
Contributions this cycle: $86,418
Cash on hand: $83,657
Jackson County Leadership PAC
Cash on hand: $49,317.70
Total cash on hand for the race: $170,075
Joe Nicola
Contributions this cycle: $2,266
Cash on hand: $24,313.51
Rachl Aguirre
Contributions this cycle: $ n/a
Cash on hand: $n/a

*An Extra* SD 6 Sen. Mike Bernskoetter is seeking re-election.
Look this race isn’t really contested, Mr. Reidel I’m sure is a nice guy but honestly if Mike just got 70% of the Bernskoetter family living in central Missouri to vote for him it would be an insurmountable margin to overcome.
I only included this because I wanted to tell y’all about Mr. Reidel’s appearance on Austin Peterson’s show in Jeff City.
He was asked about pot, and of course Mr. Reidel doesn’t approve, but before Austin was done with him he had come out for prohibition.
In highly Germanic Cole County.
During lent.
On a Fish Fry Friday.
Just a lesson that running for office isn’t as easy as the folks at the crazy club tell you it is.

Senator Mike Bernskoetter
Contributions this cycle: $95,400
Cash on hand: $176,032
MO Six PAC
Cash on hand: $222,880
Scott Reidel
Contributions this cycle: $ NA
Cash on hand: $ NA

Safe Republican seats

SD 18 Sen. Cindy O’Laughlin
Contributions this cycle: $28,981
Cash on hand: $101,779
North Missouri Leadership PAC
Cash on hand:$n/a

SD 28 Sen. Sandy Crawford
Contributions this cycle: $50,374
Cash on hand: $257,045

SD 32 Sen. Bill White
Contributions this cycle: $57,049
Cash on hand: $71,660
Southwest Missouri Patriot PAC
Cash on hand: $59,193

SD 34 Sen. Tony Luetkemeyer
Contributions this cycle: $ 18,370
Cash on hand: $ 616,380
Tony PAC
Cash on hand: $285,554

Safe Democrat seats
SD 4 Sen. Karla May
Contributions this cycle: NA
Cash on hand: $22,984
Voices of the People PAC
Cash on hand: $35,298

SD 14 Sen. Brian Williams
Contributions this cycle: $113,122
Cash on hand: 187,945.40
B PAC
Cash on hand: $102,425.00

Incumbents who are term limited in 2024.

SD 11 Sen. John Rizzo is term limited.
Contributions this cycle: $76,180
Cash on hand: $24,845
Truth in Campaigns PAC
Cash on hand: $231,217

Potential candidates:

Former Independence Mayor Eileen Weir
Contributions this cycle: $141,813
Cash on hand: $58,100
Missourians for a Better Tomorrow
Cash on hand: $14,885

Rep. Robbie Sauls
Contributions this cycle: $131,442
Cash on hand: $24,845
Rep. Bill Kidd
Contributions this cycle: $10,076
Cash on hand: $3,486

SD 15 Sen. Andrew Koenig is term limited.
Contributions this cycle: $74,525
Cash on hand: $41,760
Freedom’s Promise PAC
Cash on hand: $16,536

SD 17 Sen. Caleb Rowden is term limited.
Contributions this cycle: $97,825
Cash on hand: $57,724
Missouri Forward PAC
Cash on hand: $56,682.

Potential candidates:

Former Columbia Mayor Brian Treece
Contributions this cycle: $n/a
Cash on hand: $n/a

Former Rep. Stephen Webber
Contributions this cycle: $n/a
Cash on hand: $n/a

Rep. Chuck Bayse
Contributions this cycle: $0
Cash on hand: $8,714

SD 19 Sen. Lauren Arthur is term limited.
Contributions this cycle: $3,500
Cash on hand: $ 92,295
True North PAC
Cash on hand: $92,295

Potential candidates:

Clay County Commissioner Jon Carpenter
Contributions this cycle: $ n/a
Cash on hand: $93,168

SD 21 Sen. Denny Hoskins is term limited.
Contributions this cycle: $50,495
Cash on hand: $107,456
Old Drum Conservative PAC
Cash on hand: $56,995

Potential candidates:

Rep. Kurtis Gregory
Contributions this cycle: $ 62,617
Cash on hand: $48,168

SD 23 Sen. Bill Eigel is term limited.
Contributions this cycle: $185,594
Cash on hand: $110,376
BILL PAC
Cash on hand: $ 185,040

Potential candidates:

Rep. Phil Christofanelli 
Contributions this cycle: $1,750
Cash on hand: $15,433
Saint Charles Organization of RepublicansPAC
Cash on hand: $80,386

Incumbents who are up for re-election in 2024

SD 1 Sen. Doug Beck
Contributions this cycle: $63,695
Cash on hand: $98,699
Doug PAC
Cash on hand: $43, 308
Total cash on hand for the race: $

SD 3 Sen. Elaine Gannon
Contributions this cycle: $77,486
Cash on hand: $13,441
Six County PAC
Cash on hand: $20,378

SD 5 Sen. Steve Roberts
Contributions this cycle: $59,165
Cash on hand: $31,106
STL Democratic Coalition PAC
Cash on hand: $40,300

SD 7 Sen.Greg Razer
Contributions this cycle: $55,838
Cash on hand: $119,855
KC Neighbors for Progress PAC:
Cash on hand:$37,593

SD 9 Sen. Barbara Washington
Contributions this cycle: n/a
Cash on hand: n/a
Eastside Forward PAC
Cash on hand: $76,608

SD 13 Sen. Angela Mosley
Contributions this cycle: $92,436
Cash on hand: $45,846

SD 25 Sen. Jason Bean
Contributions this cycle: $181,036
Cash on hand: $139,180
Conservative Leadership for Southeast Missouri PAC
Cash on hand: $46,292

SD 27 Sen. Holly Rehder
Contributions this cycle: $77,494
Cash on hand: $95,401
Southern Drawl PAC
Cash on hand: $4,232.09

SD 29 Sen. Mike Moon
Contributions this cycle: $301,172
Cash on hand: $52,342

SD 31 Sen.Brattin
Contributions this cycle: $263,685.68
Cash on hand: $41,718.92
True Patriot PAC
Cash on hand: $93,94$

SD 33 Sen. Karla Eslinger
Contributions this cycle: $7,750
Cash on hand: $38,153
Conservative leadership of the Ozarks PAC
Cash on hand: $10,305.

Scott Faughn

Scott Faughn is the publisher of The Missouri Times, owner of the Clayton Times in Clayton; SEMO Times in Poplar Bluff; and host of the only statewide political television show, This Week in Missouri Politics.

The post April 2022 State Senate Tipsheet appeared first on The Missouri Times.

Republican Roy Blunt is retiring in 2022.
There will be no filling the enormous void left by legendary Missouri Senator Roy Blunt as he retires from the senate. However, the primary is proving to be as interesting as Senator Blunt was effective. Let’s take a look at the fundraising of the candidates, but keep in mind federal campaign finance is one of the most screwed up things anyone could ever devise so much of the spending will be done through anonymous dark money PACs.

Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt
Attorney General Schmitt has pretty expertly used his job as AG to position himself as a conservative fighter to the point that even his rivals in the race give him credit for. The issues of schools force masking kids was a key touchpoint that connected his job as AG to real republican activists. One more variant and one more mask order and he will have an actual lead in this race.

Barring that, he has put himself in the best financial position with a near $3 million dollars advantage over anyone in the race, and now that it is basically a three way tie between himself, Congresswoman Hartzler, and Greitens that money will matter along with AFP pumping over $1 million in IEs already.

From the beginning of the race when he was in the single digits to today when he has at least the best momentum in the race if not the lead he has been the most upwardly mobile. It will be interesting to see if Greitens’ attack ads blunt that momentum.

Bottom line: He keeps it up; he is right in the running with the momentum, and gets the biggest share of any voter who peels off Greitens. Another variant, and he is likely the senator.

Contributions this period: $2,924,918
Cash on hand: $$1,301,574
Debt: $6,360
Cash on hand minus debt: $1,295,214
Save Missouri Values PAC
Contributions this period: $4,580,119
Cash on hand: $3,351,577

Congresswoman Vicky Hartzler 
The congresswoman has been like a diesel engine slowly and consistently building a campaign that I figure once you’re on board you’re there. She as by a long shot the best group of rural ag folks working for her, and the Hawley endorsement is a big big deal. Now she is going to have to get Senator Hawley to shake loose some of that money. To that end a PAC has been set up the Hawley Show-Me Strong PAC, but it only has raised $14,100. Being a woman, and an undeniably moral person gives her the best angle to attack Greitens, but does that just peel voters off to Schmitt? It’s what makes this race so compelling.

Bottom line: She keeps pouring it on, and she has by far the best claim to the undecideds out there. If she gets the biggest share of those, and Senator Hawley gives a fundraising boost, she likely wins.

Contributions this period: $2,431,638
Cash on hand: $1,526,540
Debts: $47,123
Cash on hand minus debt: $1,179,417
Secure Our Freedom Action Fund
Contributions this period: $44,000
Cash on hand: $38,797

Former Governor Eric Greitens
At this point everyone knows who Eric Greitens is, there really isn’t any question about what you’re voting for if you’re still in that basement.
The question that will be answered this summer is: Who are Missouri Republicans?
He has always ran his campaigns on dark money and out of state contributions, and will again here. We didn’t count The G Team money because he counted in with his candidate committee.
The most telling statistic on this tipsheet is after the former First Lady’s allegations broke on the 21st of last month only 6 Missourians contributed to him for a total of $1,000, and half of that was from his own family.

Bottom Line: If domestic violence, blackmailing mistresses, and child abuse are what the Missouri Republican Party stands for then he wins. If not then he loses.

Contributions this period: $1,869,078
Cash on hand: $345,162
Debt: $145,848
Cash on hand minus debt: $199,314
TEAM PAC
Contributions this period: $2,500,000
Cash on hand: $1,732,157
Missouri First PAC
Contributions this period: $297,455
Cash on hand: $231,080

Congressman Billy Long
The Billy Bus really hasn’t fired up until the last couple weeks. Look he would fire off a few here and there, but in the last couple weeks the Billy that I know and love has been pretty consistently firing off.
He is the most compelling interview in the field and if all six candidates had dinner with all 6 million Missourians he would win. However, I think he should just put a GoPro on someone and have them follow him around all the time on the campaign trail. I’d watch.
Best moment of his campaign so far was when Senator Hawley fired him up over how he handled the Hartzler endorsement, and when President Trump fired off a great tweet highlighting his campaign.

Bottom line: If he can get his personality out to voters he can shake the race up. If not then he could choose to be an attack dog on one candidate and probably sink them.

Contributions this period: $1,588,958
Cash on hand: $500,546
Debts: $250,000
Cash on hand minus debt: $250,546

Mark McCloskey
I’ve consistently said it, and still believe it: there is something there with this campaign. He does connect with republicans, but running for office is very very hard. Starting your career running for the US Senate is even harder. He has had staff issues, and still hasn’t been able to tap into the online money that I believe is out there for him.
It still bewilders me that he leaves his house without his machine gun. Back home we would say: “dance with the gun that brung ya.”

Bottom line: He can connect with people, but the organization side has to improve or it won’t matter.

Contributions this period: $1,015,660
Cash on hand: $38,195
Debts: $118,769
Cash on hand minus debt: -$80,574

State Senate President Pro Tem Dave Schatz
Senator Schatz is looking for 20% of reasonably traditional pro-business republicans and is trying to build a campaign network to identify and organize them.
He is positioning himself as the reasonable and real person in the room. That cash on hand number is probably important here, and not so much the minus debt. That money is his and as I understand it he intends to spend it.

Bottom line: If there is that 20% out there I think he will spend the money to find them. However, he will have to convince them he can win because they will be the most discerning about not spoiling their vote.

Contributions this period: $2,258,267
Cash on hand: $2,134,509
Debts: $2,000,000
Cash on hand minus debt: $94,509

Lucas Kunce
Kunce caught a bad break with Gussie Busch’s daughter stepping into the race. However, he has very defty portraying her as the more centrist candidate and he is the most liberal. The guy can raise money and it’s really impossible to tell what type of candidate Ms. Busch-Valentine will be so why not carry on?

Bottom line: This primary only really matters if Greitens wins, but in reality he could, and that means Lucas Kunce has a real chance to be a US Senator.

Contributions this period: $3,325,684
Cash on hand: $942,035
Debts: $0
Cash on hand minus debt: $942,035

Trudy Busch Valentine
If you read a resume and it said Gussie Busch’s daughter, nurse, philanthropist with 100% name ID, and most all of it positive could self fund her own race against a guy who resigned in disgrace after blackmailing his mistress, striking his ex-wife, and knocking his son’s tooth out you would say this has to be a novel, or you would say Missouri Democrats who literally never have any luck could have this happen to them, but no that actually could be the case this fall.
She had a stumble in the woke parts of Missouri democratic politics with some ball she went to when she was a kid, but that won’t matter in the fall.
Who knows what kind of candidate she will be, but coming out early against defunding the police is the first start for a viable statewide democrat.

Bottom line: This is the ideal situation for democrats. A woman who can help fund the race, 100% name ID, and has made it clear she won’t get trapped in the woke lane to losing. Again it only matters if Greitens wins the primary.

Spencer Toder
Cool guy, cool campaign. He spends the limited dollars he has loaned the campaign doing good works for folks. I think he may be around for a while.

Bottom line: This looks like it isn’t his time, but I think he is impressive and look for him to run again and next time for something he wins.

Contributions this period: $434,868
Cash on hand: $23,392
Debts: $254,684
Cash on hand minus debt: -$231,292

Governor 

Lt. Governor Mike Kehoe
He is the only “announced” candidate and is putting together the most broadly supported campaign I’ve ever seen thus far. You say that you can’t meet enough people to matter in a statewide race, well Mike Kehoe is testing that theory.
From the Cattlemen, the Firefighters, to ag he is stockpiling endorsements, and money. It’s very likely that Mike Kehoe has the best rolodex in the state when it comes to raising money. However, endorsements like the firefighters are some of the best in the state as they not only show up at parades, but make for great press events, and wrote Kehoe a $50,000 check.
It could have been some foreshadowing when the Kehoe campaign gave a quote from a spokesman basically framing the race as a self made man vs. someone who isn’t. If they can frame the race that way it could chip away at Ashcroft’s greatest strength. More importantly, it shows that Kehoe is coming to fight for the nomination.
I’m not sure what more you could do right now in a race that is two years away.

Contributions this period: $58,540
Contributions this cycle: $585,530
Cash on hand: $467,434
American Dream PAC
Contributions this period: $171,096
Contributions this cycle: $171,096
Cash on hand: $973,150
Total cash on hand: $1,440,584

Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft
While the secretary isn’t “officially” running for governor he is now officially running for governor with his eruption in fundraising this quarter.
The only knock on Secretary Ashcroft is that he has never been a tremendous fundraiser, well he raised more in the first quarter of this year than any quarter ever, and close to any election ever.
He of course starts any republican primary with a huge name ID and he has a poll showing him winning 50-20% which I assume is close to right at this stage.
There is a conventional wisdom that Kehoe’s path is through out fundraising Ashcroft if that is the case then Jay made a huge statement this quarter.

Contributions this period: $36,995
Contributions this cycle: $221,862
Cash on hand: $537,036
Committee for Liberty PAC
Contributions this period: $760,000
Contributions this cycle: $904,484
Cash on hand: $944,927
Total cash on hand: $1,481,963

State Auditor

State Treasurer Scott Fitzpatrick
The incumbent Treasurer began with an advantage in infrastructure and from having run statewide before. There was thought early on that he would be well behind in fundraising. Well the Sinquefields and some support from Governor Parson has as of now pretty much leveled the playing field. It’s my thought that it’s impossible to have very much name ID in this race so buying air time will matter, and Fitzpatrick has to feel very good about the summer if he can be at money parity with Gregory.

Contributions this period: $99,099
Contributions this cycle: $590,481
Cash on hand: $576,058
Missourians for a Responsible Budget PAC
Contributions this period: $5,500
Contributions this cycle: $538,730
Cash on hand: $264,154
Total cash on hand: $840,212

Representative David Gregory
Gregory jumped out to a flurry of police and firefighter endorsements and fundraising. He has shown this is a serious race that could go either way.
His fundraising has forced the incumbent to loan his campaign money, and last quarter Gregory matched him by investing in the race himself.
Gregory has a built in message about Jeff City folks picking the man who audits the books, but he may not wanna offend the folks he might with that line of attack.
Either way this will be a tight race all summer.

Contributions this period: $50,192
Contributions this cycle: $493,702
Cash on hand: $448,335
Show Me Growth PAC
Contributions this period: $50,500
Contributions this cycle: $476,817
Cash on hand: $406,612
Total cash on hand: $854,947

Scott Faughn

Scott Faughn is the publisher of The Missouri Times, owner of the Clayton Times in Clayton; SEMO Times in Poplar Bluff; and host of the only statewide political television show, This Week in Missouri Politics.

The post April 2022 Tipsheet: Statewides appeared first on The Missouri Times.

The biggest difference in this map and that previous map is that it shifts the weight of some of the districts from rural weighted districts to evenly split districts and even enhances the suburban influence inside several republican seats.

Now the overall reaction to the maps have been pretty harsh to say the least, however it all comes down to whose ox is getting gored.

If your reading this over the top of your mask while sipping your Starbucks sitting in your Prius on some cul-de-sac in the suburbs then you probably love this map.

However, if you’re reading this sitting on the tailgate of your pickup while dranking a Budweiser parked off a gravel road…well there ain’t much here you’re gonna like.

Again there really isn’t a good or bad with a map it’s just winners and losers. This map could be good or bad depending on your taste for republican, or right wing republican politics and if you grew up in a subdivision or on a gravel road.

Overall: There is one pretty direct flip in this map where it gives democrats a very likely pick up in SD19 in Boone County. Unless national democrats really get in the way of voting trends SD8, SD30, SD15 will be competitive districts when the incumbents in those districts term out, and at some point in the next decade SD23 could be competitive. However, SD11 is a democrat held district that those same national trends are making competitive right now and without Senator Rizzo being one of the best politicians in the state would have went republican with President Trump.

The former map produced 19 solid republican districts, 6 solid democratic districts, and 9 districts where competitive races were ran. Those nine break down 5 republican and 4 democrat giving a pretty consistent 24-10 republican advantage.

This cycle, the new map produces 7 solid democratic districts, and 3 likely democratic districts. On the republican side the new map produces 18 solid republican districts, and 3 more likely republican districts. That leaves 2 seats that are going to be fought over once their incumbents leave office, SD11 in Independence, and SD30 in Springfield.

In a very good year for republicans they can maybe push their total to 25, but in average years they are likely to maintain a something of a 23-24 seat majority. If good democratic years line up with open seats they can maybe get to 13 seats under this map, and in a watershed year they might even compete in either the 23rd or 34th and get to 14. However, its more likely the republican majority floats between 22-24 for the decade depending on national trends under this map.

While the initial reaction from most has been pretty universally negative toward the final product of the map, I’m not sure if it is the worst map ever produced by a judicial commission;  let’s look at the map district by district

SD1 (D+7.2) Senator Beck picked up more of Webster Groves, and actually lost some of his more republican territory around Sunset Hills. He will be in good shape for re-election, and likely his successor will start off as the favorite. The only republican that can move the needle in this part of south county is Donald Trump, or maybe Rep. Jim Murphy.

SD2 (R+18.4) This west St. Charles County district is pretty much the same; it just experienced a growth in population, so it had to change its footprint. Not that anyone cared before, or would now, but it does place Rep. Schroer’s actual house in the senate district.

SD3 (R+29.9) Everyone knew pretty well going into the process, that the third was going to be picking up more of rural Missouri, and it did, picking up Crawford and Washington Counties. This district is probably an easier fit for Rep. Mike Henderson should Senator Gannon choose not to seek re-election.

SD4 (D+48.8) The fourth has very radically changed, again to reflect the city’s population loss. The City of St. Louis lost population; so while the fifth stayed completely inside the city, it had grown quite a bit, now running all the way down the riverfront. The length of the city leaves only about a third of the southwest of the city in the fourth.

SD5 (D+80.5) The fifth has very radically changed to reflect the city’s fairly dramatic population loss. It breaks out of the city all the way down I-44 into Richmond Heights, Brentwood, Shrewsbury, and Rock Hill. It is still a city district, but it’s pretty close, and if some trends don’t reverse in ten years it won’t be a majority city district.The fifth has very radically changed, again to reflect the city’s population loss. The City of St. Louis lost population; so while the fifth stayed completely inside the city, it had grown quite a bit, now running all the way down the riverfront. The length of the city leaves only about a third of the southwest of the city in the fourth.

SD6 (R+42.4) The district that hosts the capitol gave up Osage and Maries and picked up Camden County. It will be served by a citizen of the City of Jefferson for the next ten years.

SD7 (D+47.6) The seventh changed a little, picking up some of the ground around the riverfront on the northern edge of the district.

SD8 (R+4.4) The eighth has been a microcosm of the country, where some affluent suburban voters have been drifting to the democratic party, albeit slowly in Missouri. Senator Cierpiot is a shoe in for re-election, especially in the Biden mid-term we are entering into. However, this would be a prime pickup target for democrats in 2026, behind someone like Rep. Ingle.

SD9 (D+59.2) The Freedom Inc. district picked up some more of the Raytown area, other than that it will be pretty much the same district. Their senator will be selected in the same manner as Senator Washington, who is an easy bet for re-election in the ninth.

SD10 (R+31.3) The tenth traded Monroe, Warren, and Audrain Counties for Pike County, due primarily to the growth of Lincoln County into almost a suburban county of St. Louis. The judges in what is a “subtle or who knows it’s so obvious that maybe it’s a not so subtle” shot at the Governor could have let Rep. Pietzman draw this district himself. Either way it sets up a big primary this summer with Rep. Fitzwater.

SD11 (R+3.1) The 11th has seen the exact same trend as the eighth, however, in the 11th it’s the blue collar workers that are moving to the republican party. Look for someone like Rep. Kidd on the republican side in a big time primary, with someone like Rep. Sauls on the democrat side, are  to have a barn burner in the fall of ’24 to fill some big shoes left behind by Senator Rizzo.

SD12 (R+44.9) The GREAT northwest always handles things their own way, and this time was no different. The district gave up their Clay County portion to pick up the suburban Gower side of Buchanan County and some counties to the east including Livingston where Rep. Rusty Black is now in the district and likely heading across the rotunda.

SD13 (D+62.5) The 13th stayed pretty much in tact as it was in the prior map only adding portions of Jennings and Hazelwood to the district.

SD14 (D+55.2) The 14th is also much the same, only losing some of the Clayton area, but it will be essentially the same make up for the next ten years and easily re-elect Senator Williams.

SD15 (R+5.5) Again in this map, 15th will be the only reliably republican enclave in St. Louis County. The district moved west to accommodate the rest of the area, picking up Wildwood and more of the Chesterfield area, while giving up some of the old district’s more democratic areas around Kirkwood.

SD16 (R+44.1) The judges really stuck it to Senator Brown here damn near like a vendetta. I’d hate to wear a robe to work and need something from him in the next few months. They not only took away Crawford, which is a clear community of interest with his home in Rolla, they also traded Camden County for Laclede County and then just for spite I guess, added Wright County for one of the oddest districts in the state. Senator Brown will still win handily, but if you drew ten maps it’s unlikely any of them would be worse than this one is for him. 

SD17 (D+6.3) Senator Arthur flipped this district in 2018, and it probably would have been flipped sooner except that Senator Silvey was a fantastic politician. The district changed very little in the new map, only shrank a small amount to the southwest corner of Clay County. 

SD18 (R+44.0) The northeast Missouri seat essentially only gave up Linn and Chariton Counties in order to pick up Monroe and Audrain Counties. This way Senator O’Laughlin gets to be the senator for Missouri legend Kit Bond. 

SD19 (D+8.4) This is the most likely pick up. The judges had no real choice because Boone County has just grown past the threshold where you could stick another adjoining county with it. For the last ten years that additional county has been the difference in keeping the seat republican. With it gone, it’s very likely the seat will go back to the democrats with either Stephen Webber or Mayor Brian Treece. 

SD20 (R+43.3) The old 20th was the rest of Greene County outside the 30th, and all of Christian County has grown too much to remain one district. In its place is the rest of Greene that isn’t in the 30th, as well as Webster, Barton, and Dade Counties. The new lines don’t really affect the existing primary between Rep. Curtis Trent and businessman Brian Gelner, as it will really be settled in Greene County which will make up well over half the district anyway. 

SD21 (R+24.5) Here is another head scratcher from the judges. Especially the ones from rural Missouri. They took Johnson County from the district and replaced it with…..wait for it…..the suburban voters of Clay County. There is literally no logic here from a rural Missourian’s view, but I guess it makes sense to those still wearing covid masks. I can’t really speak to that. The likely outcome is a rural vs. suburban primary in two years, but there didn’t have to be. 

SD22 (R+14.1) Jefferson County stays pretty much the same, it just traded a little of the southwestern portion of the district for more of Festus and Crystal City of McKenna family fame. It may tempt Jefferson County Clerk Ken Waller into the race as he is from there, but as you know I’ve always predicted from the start that no matter how many people Rep. Vescovo promises that he won’t run for senate, that the angry ones never leave on their own. #SteinOfKnowledge

SD23 (R+5.3) The new 23rd is just the old 23rd that creeps a little farther northwest. Rep. Christofanelli is still the overwhelmingly likely successor to Senator Eigel. 

SD24 (D+8.1) The new 24th is pretty radically different from the old 24th. In the past it stretched between Maryland Heights and Chesterfield. Now it stretches from Maryland Heights all the way to the JeffCo line in Fenton. The partisan breakdown is actually a little better for Rep. McCreery, but this new territory is ground she hasn’t been campaigning in. It would take literally a dozen unlikely things to cost her this seat, but these are Missouri democrats and they are creative. 

SD25 (R+57.9) The 25th (the best district in the state) didn’t change a whole lot. It swapped Shannon County, the home of Kayla Hahn, for a more contiguous Wayne, Ripley, and Oregon Counties. 

SD26 (R+31.9) The 26th is the anomaly here, where they made the district more rural by swapping some St. Louis suburbs for Warren, Osage, and the German enclave of Gasconade Counties. You assume this would hurt Ben Brown, who saw a large part of the district being in St. Louis County drop to just Eureka and Pacific, but in a three way he still has a marginal edge in a very competitive race where there is probably a number that if he raises that he can win. 

SD27 (R+49.4) This used to be a Cape district until the Senator from “speaking her damn mind” Holly Rehder won it. She traded out some good hill country, swapping Wayne County for the home of the Battle of Pilot Knob in Iron County and Reynolds County. 

SD28 (R+45.5) The new 28th is similar to the old 28th, with Senator Crawford remaining in the southwest corner of the district. They took Laclede County from her and gave her Vernon and Shannon Cooper’s home in Henry County. 

SD29 (R+47.2) It appears some folks are looking to find a primary for Senator Moon as he trades Stone and Taney Counties, where had already won, for the republican primary vote-rich area of Christian County. 

SD30 (R+1.9) Senator Hough’s district is barely changed, as it expands just outside the city of Springfield. He will be re-elected easily, but after him this will be a top tier competitive race in 2026 for someone like Rep. Quade on the democrat side. 

SD31 (R+28.3) Here is where the knife came out for rural Missouri. This decision seemed to lead to the silliness in the 21st and so on. They took the Cass County, plus several rural counties district of Senator Brattin, and shoved Johnson County into it. Cass is twice the size of Johnson and for whatever reason follows, the trend of reducing the rural senate districts in the state again. Maybe this makes sense at Starbucks, but at one of the coffee shops inside the filling station in rural Missourah, it’s the most head scratching decision, and where a lot of the criticism of this map starts. 

SD32 (R+48.0) The Joplin district keeps growing and in this map the 32nd doesn’t need Dade County anymore to make a complete district. You have to figure Jasper and Newton Counties will make up the 32nd for several maps to come. 

SD33 (R+54.2) Senator Eslinger’s district that boasts the home of Porter Wagoner got pretty well worked over taking in Stone, Shannon, and Taney Counties; having to give up Wright, Oregon, Ripley, and what had to be painful Webster County. The district went from being a Howell County centered district to pretty close to a Branson district. This was probably more fallout from the 20th having to be changed than anything else, but some will wonder why Texas didn’t go to the 16th and had Wright stay in the 33rd. 

SD34 (R+6.3) The 34th has grown to the point where they were able to cut half of Buchanan County out of the district. Pretty tough break for folks in Buchanan County, and you wonder why some of the suburban voters from Clay County weren’t a better fit for the suburban voters in Platte County than they were for folks in Saline County. Either way, the ancestors of the Pony Express got the short end of the stick. 

Scott Faughn

Scott Faughn is the publisher of The Missouri Times, owner of the Clayton Times in Clayton; SEMO Times in Poplar Bluff; and host of the only statewide political television show, This Week in Missouri Politics.

The post TWMP Column: New Senate map district by district appeared first on The Missouri Times.

Missouri State Treasurer Scott Fitzpatrick 
Scott Fitzpatrick has used his office as state treasurer to campaign effectively as an incumbent in the auditor’s race. Last year, had to loan himself $250,000 to keep up with his opponent. However, last quarter it was Rex Sinquefield who came in with a $250,000 check to level the playing field.

It stands to reason that Fitzpatrick is the favorite if he can just maintain money parity. Thus far, he is doing just that. However, at one time the conventional wisdom was that he needed to get to $1 million, but that number is gonna be higher.

It’s gonna be a fun race to watch.

Contributions this cycle: $500,126
Loans: $250,000
Cash on hand: $528,481
Missourians for a Responsible Budget PAC
Contributions this cycle: $538,730
Cash on hand: $273,654
Total cash on hand for the campaign: $802,1235

State Representative David Gregory

Rep. David Gregory took on an auditor’s race that most thought was foolhardy, but he has proven to be one of the more impressive fundraisers in the party. In a race where the governor, and now the largest Republican donor in modern party history is on the other side, Gregory has held firm with them quarter-for-quarter.

Now, he has a few heavy hitters himself including this quarter a max check from David Stewart, and most figure he will add more this quarter.

Now the interesting part is since he has built an unquestionably impressive war chest, does he run an outsider campaign with it?

Contributions this cycle: $442,310
Cash on hand: $439,445
Show Me Growth PAC
Contributions this cycle: $419,167
Cash on hand: $352,798
Total cash on hand for the campaign: $792,243

Governor-2024

Lt. Governor Mike Kehoe
Lt. Governor Mike Kehoe officially jumped into the race early last year and has been literally everywhere ever since. You have to assume to win this race he will have to win the fundraising race by a pretty good chunk and put together a network all around the state that is as personal as political.

The good thing for him is that Kehoe has the best Rolodex in Missouri and when people meet him in person they support him at a greater percentage than anyone in Missouri politics.

There are 10 more fundraising quarters ’til the ‘24 primary. He probably needs to win them all. He is off to a good start.

Contributions this cycle: $526,990
Cash on hand: $483,126
American Dream PAC
Contributions this cycle: $700,710
Cash on hand: $899,507
Total cash on hand for the campaign: $1,382,633

Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft 
The secretary of state has not announced his campaign for governor, but most felt that when he passed on a U.S. Senate run, it was a foregone conclusion that he was running in 2024.

He will begin the campaign with near 100 percent name ID.

Contributions this cycle: $182,217
Cash on hand: $512,290
Committee for Liberty PAC
Contributions this cycle: $134,484
Cash on hand: $199,127
Total cash on hand for the campaign: $711,417

Senator Bill Eigel
Most assume that Sen. Bill Eigel will be a leader in a lieutenant governor or secretary of state race, but there are some in the activist community who see him as governor and not in 2032 — but in 2024.

If he pushes his chips in for 2024, he will start as the underdog and try to catch lightning in a bottle. Which is possible.

Contributions this cycle: $89,783
Cash on hand: $118,851
BILL PAC/100 PAC
Contributions this cycle: $162,094/171,200
Cash on hand: $224,992/52,277
Total cash on hand for the campaign: $396,120

The Bench |  REPUBLICANS

#1 Senate Majority Leader Caleb Rowden
Sen. Caleb Rowden is on the top of this list for a reason. He has more chips to cash in around the state than anyone and is the Senate majority leader in a session where there likely won’t be any competitive general elections.

Rowden has navigated the Senate in what might be the most challenging time since term limits and is the only person on this list to be the underdog in competitive general elections and primary elections, and win.

Many thought he would run for Congress, and when he passed some will wonder if he runs in 2024, or sits out a few years. Either way, if he chooses to run he will be a leading contender for any office.

Contributions this cycle: $86,325
Cash on hand: $62,945
Majority Forward PAC
Contributions this cycle: $152,427
Cash on hand: $155,752
Total cash on hand for the campaign: $218,697

#2 State Senator Bill Eigel
A lot of people spend their time in the legislature either raising money or connecting with activists. Sen. Bill Eigel has done both. He has been consistently fundraising, and on top of that, has positioned himself as one of the closest allies of the state’s newest mega-donor.

Further, he has built a relationship with conservative activists to where he can have 100 people show up to the rotunda at a moment’s notice.

Lastly, he has taken to hosting events with major Republican figures. His Candace Owens event was regarded as one of the most successful grassroots events anyone had seen in Missouri.

If he continues his fundraising and if events like his next with Donald Trump Jr. continue being successful, he will be a top contender for the executive branch.

Contributions this cycle: $89,783
Cash on hand: $118,851
BILL PAC/100 PAC
Contributions this cycle: $162,094/171,200
Cash on hand: $224,992/52,277
Total cash on hand for the campaign: $396,120

#3 State Senator Lincoln Hough
The only reason Sen. Lincoln Hough won’t be a statewide official is if he doesn’t want to run. He can raise money with anyone in the state, he is a legitimate cattle farmer, and he is from the ruby red 417. You also get the sense like with former Sen. Ron Richard that when he does something, it’s because he actually thinks it’s the right move, not a pander for Twitter likes.

While he is sitting on $600,000 before his re-election, that is almost certain to be an easy affair that he will be able to save most of the money he raises. Then he is likely to be Appropriations chairman for four years after that. He could leave the Senate with a couple million dollars and be able to position himself for the office of his choosing, possibly lieutenant governor. You know he spends a lot of time in the dais anyway.

Contributions this cycle: $312,388
Cash on hand: $306,833
Lincoln PAC
Contributions this cycle: $321,650
Cash on hand: $307,184
Total cash on hand for the campaign: $614,017

#4 House Floor Leader Dean Plocher
The speaker-to-be would be in a great position to run statewide as he cuts across almost every section of the party. First of all, he is a St. Louisan who actually cares about rural Missouri issues.

From bio-diesel to roads, Dean Plocher has in many ways been a better advocate from rural Missouri than most rural Missouri legislators.

He would also start a campaign with over 100 legislators to give him the lay of the land in their areas. Further, it’s become commonplace for speakers to leave the office and keep their money instead of giving it to the caucus, so he should leave the caucus with at least the $600,000 his predecessor is taking with him.

If he wants to run, he will be someone others avoid running against in 2024.

Contributions this cycle: $258,745
Cash on hand: $357,431
Missouri United PAC
Contributions this cycle: $391,745
Cash on hand: $300,416
Total cash on hand for the campaign: $657,847

#5 State Senator Tony Luetkemeyer
Sen. Tony Luetkemeyer has one of the larger warchests in the party — and that is before his re-election which will be a cakewalk even if his district were to change. He has become the go-to person for police to carry legislation in the Senate and has relationships with most conservative activists in the state.

He should top $1 million on hand before the end of session, and most of what he raises the rest of the cycle should be able to be banked for a statewide run that everyone in the Capitol believes is the next step for the senator from Platte.

Contributions this cycle: $626,896
Cash on hand: $610,999
Tony PAC
Contributions this cycle: $244,186
Cash on hand: $285,031
Total cash on hand for the campaign: $896,030

#6 Former House Speaker Elijah Haahr
One upside of terming out as the youngest speaker in state history is that you can take a few years off and still be younger than most others in the field. He has nearly $400,000 already in the bank, and a record of being speaker when the biggest pro-life legislation in state history became law. Further, his successor as speaker has made his time at the dais look all better every week.

You can tell he is still interested in the game as he is doing a good deal of radio down in Springfield. If he chooses to jump back in, he will be a top contender for whatever he aims for.

Cash on hand: $259,865
Bold PAC
Cash on hand: $123,036
Total cash on hand for the campaign: $382,901

#7 Dr. Jon Patterson
Rep. Jon Patterson is finishing his second term in the House and in a race for House floor leader, he is a rising star in the party. He can flat our raise money and has a life story that could be a made-for-TV movie.

Whether he enters House leadership, succeeds Sen. Mike Cierpiot in the Senate, or chooses to run statewide, he has more political ability than most on this list.

Contributions this cycle: $145,484
Cash on hand: $97,181
Missouri Alliance PAC
Contributions this cycle: $7,200
Cash on hand: $14,298
Total cash on hand for the campaign: $111,479

#8 Rep. Kurtis Gregory  
If you ask Republicans at Lincoln Days who they want their candidate to be, they might describe a successful farmer, former Mizzou football star, who can raise money, and no one wants to mess with. You would describe freshman Rep. Kurtis Gregory.

Being early in his career, he has pathways to run for House leadership, possibly a Senate seat, or to run for statewide office in 2024.

The sky is the limit for the gentleman from Saline.

Contributions this cycle: $58,017
Cash on hand: $52,786
Wonderdog PAC
Contributions this cycle: $9,200
Cash on hand: $7,743
Total cash on hand for the campaign: $60,529

#9 Former US Attorney Tim Garrison 
The former U.S. attorney from Springfield is going to be a top tier candidate should he run for office, and with his resume including being a veteran and U.S. attorney under President Trump, he has the perfect resume and seems to be making all the right friends to put himself in position to run — that is if he isn’t appointed attorney general should Eric Schmitt be elected to the U.S. Senate.

#10 Senator Andrew Koenig
Sen. Andrew Koenig won an upset win in his Senate primary in 2016. Then, he was the underdog to many in his general election in 2020, and all he did was win in a walk. He is one of very few senators who can speak to the entire Republican caucus on tough issues. He is still fundraising, he has conservative credentials, and his legislative success has kept the door open to his political future. Whatever he chooses to do next, I wouldn’t underestimate him.

Contributions this cycle: $72,210
Cash on hand: $45,471
Freedom Promise PAC
Contributions this period: $9,500
Cash on hand: $17,886
Total cash on hand for the campaign: $63,357

Leaving the list: Rep. David Gregory, running for state auditor; Sen. Bob Onder, likely running for St. Charles County executive; House Speaker Rob Vescovo, likely running for state Senate; and Rep. Mary Elizabeth Coleman running for state Senate. 

Scott Faughn

Scott Faughn is the publisher of The Missouri Times, owner of the Clayton Times in Clayton; SEMO Times in Poplar Bluff; and host of the only statewide political television show, This Week in Missouri Politics.

The post Tip Sheet: Republican Statewide appeared first on The Missouri Times.

Now, these things change if Senate Republicans begin to cannibalize themselves. As it stands now, Senate Democrats can really only pick up seats if Senate Republicans drain their resources in primaries and the climate shifts, and really after seeing the results in Virginia and the price of gas and steaks skyrocket you’d figure as of now republican candidates win regardless. 

The Senate begins with 10 returning Republicans and seven returning Democrats. Of the seats with returning senators, SD 4 with Sen. Karla May will return and SD 14 with Sen. Brian Williams will stay safely Democratic. However, there are many people urging Williams to seek higher office. Even if he does, the seat will stay in Democrats’ hands. It will take something very unpredictable for SD 24 not to stay in Democratic hands with McCreery moving up, but it’s hard to be sure that something can’t go wrong when discussing Missouri Democrats. That leaves all 10 Democratic seats likely to return to the Capitol, so status quo.

For Senate Republicans, there are always two sets of math that apply. They start the cycle with 10 returning senators and eight senators up for re-election. As we mentioned earlier, SD 8 and SD 30 are seats becoming more and more competitive as they are currently constituted, but with President Biden in the White House, they will stay in Republicans’ hands so long as  Republican infighting can be curtailed — leaving them with a majority of 18. 

After that, there are six seats currently held by Republicans which will be certain to remain in Republicans’ hands — bringing them back to the 24 senators they currently have. 

Now for the other set of math. There are currently 14 senators who are more or less with the majority of the majority or the Caleb Caucus. Sen. Paul Wieland who is kinda his own man right now and seven who are in their own caucus of the minority of the majority, and Sens. Cindy O’Loughlin and Holly Rehder could be seen as in either. The two sides are in just open warfare, and it’s really getting silly to refer to them as one caucus. 

There are 10 returning Republican senators. Now you can never really know where senators will ultimately be in a leadership race, we will make some assumptions, but they are just assumptions: 

• Four of them in what you might refer to as the Caleb Caucus in Sens. Elaine Gannon, Jason Bean, Karla Eslinger, and, of course, Rowden. 
• The three of them you might refer to as being in the Eigel Caucus are Sens. Andrew Koenig, Denny Hoskins, and, of course, Eigel. Now two more would be in the Eigel Caucus but are running for Congress: Sens. Rick Brattin and Mike Moon. If they were to be unsuccessful then they would return making five. 
• Seems hard to say but Rehder might be in the Lean Rowden column, but it might be hard to be certain. 

This starts off the cycle with Rowden with four, Eigel with between 3-5 depending on congressional races, and Rehder.

Of the incumbents running for re-election, none of them are from the Eigel Caucus, while there are seven from the Caleb Caucus up for re-election including Sens. Lincoln Hough, Mike Bernskoetter, Justin Brown, Mike Cierpiot, Tony Luetkemeyer, Sandy Crawford, and Bill White. All of whom are very likely to be re-elected, although there are some rumblings of primary challenges. Then there is also O’Loughlin who has previously been aligned with the Eigel Caucus, but seems less so today — so put her with Rehder. 

If you assume neither senator goes to Congress and no incumbent is defeated then you would see the Eigel Caucus at five and the Caleb Caucus at 11 with O’Loughlin and Rehder. 

That leaves six open seats where it seems there will be open competitions for their votes. 

In SD 10 you assume that Rep. Randy Pietzman would be in the Eigel Caucus where Rep. Travis Fitzwater would join the Caleb Caucus. 

In SD 26 you assume that Rep. Aaron Greisheimer would be in the Caleb Caucus where Ben Brown would be in the Eigel Caucus. 

In SD 12 you assume that the field isn’t set until the boundaries are, and until Axiom signs someone, it’s hard to see who will be on whose side there. 

In SD 2 in Eigel’s home county, you would think he would have the best chance for either picking the winner or securing his vote. 

In SD 22 the question will be can House Speaker Rob Vescovo convince Eigel that either he is on his side or that it’s not worth competing with his war chest. 

In SD 20 Rep. Curtis Trent would be someone that both caucuses could compete over, where his primary opponent Brian Gelner is close to Burlison but seems to fit the Caleb Caucus background. 

The final analysis is that after the elections, there is little doubt that the Republicans will maintain a supermajority. The only real question is what will the Republican Caucus look like. I would assume that Eigel picks up seats in the primaries. So then if you assume no incumbents lose and no senators leave for Congress, then as of now Rowden has the advantage on the leadership — but with a reduced majority. If Eigel runs the table and picks up 4-5 seats, then things will get very interesting. 

#1 SD 2 Sen. Onder is term-limited in 2022.

PRIMARY: TOO SOON TO CALL  –  GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN 

This will be the most brutal and expensive primary in the state — and will have a little of everything from personal grudges to attacks — with everything in play from geography to endorsements to strategy. It will be fun to watch and whoever is the next senator from the 2nd will have earned the title. 

Speaker Pro Tem John Wiemann
Speaker Pro Tem John Wiemann has a solid base in the St. Charles business community and will probably raise the most money from the most donors this cycle. His O’Fallon base has grown in line with the rest of the county. Lastly, he will be one of the hardest to attack in the race. It will be interesting to see how he throws his punches once the attacks start flying. 

On his campaign report is a list of folks from St. Charles County, including Steve Ehlmann, and a host of donors from the construction industry. On the expenditures side, he has retained Victory Enterprises & Capitol City Research. On the PAC side, groups from the Realtors to the Soybean Association to long-term care donated, and he was able to bank all of that money this quarter. 

Contributions this period: $52,341
Contributions this cycle: $64,348
Cash on hand: $144,780
Debt: $0
Loans: $0

JW Leadership Fund PAC
Contributions this period: $33,300
Contributions this cycle: $64,496
Cash on hand: $81,029
Total cash on hand for the campaign: $225,809 

Rep. Nick Schroer
Rep. Nick Schroer brings an aggressive style to this race where he has perhaps the most compelling appeal to the Republican activists. And western St. Charles County might have the most Republican activists per capita of anywhere in the state. He can also actually pass legislation that will appeal to groups in Jefferson City. He has been doing work on Republican radio stations practically since he was elected seven years ago. How the district is drawn will perhaps matter more to him than anyone since he has had to deal with a residency issue previously, but it’s an open question as to how much that matters in the suburbs. 

His report reflects his diverse political skills with several interest groups combined with a very large number of donors with James Harris running his campaign. On the PAC side, he is heavy with St. Charles businesses kicking in $5,000 and, of course, the $200,000 check from June leaves them flush with cash. 

Contributions this period: $43,580
Contributions this cycle: $54,011
Cash on hand: $83,115
Debt: $0
Loans: $0

1776 PAC
Contributions this period: $21,200
Contributions this cycle: $221,200
Cash on hand: $221,000
Total cash on hand for the campaign: $304,315

Rep. Justin Hill
Rep. Justin Hill has never been a big fundraiser, and since the end of session, he hasn’t decided to start. He has been attempting to use his Facebook page to generate buzz, but other than that, there hasn’t been a lot of on-the-ground campaigning. Of the three candidates, it seems his old Lake St. Louis address could be the most likely to be drawn north, but seeing as he can move where he needs to, redistricting probably wouldn’t mean he couldn’t run. 

He has been doing a lot of traveling and likely building up a list of potential donors, and he did get a picture with former President Trump and his Florida resort that could be useful. 

Maybe the best thing he has going for him is that some folks seem to think that his being at the Capitol on Jan. 6 hurts his political viability in St. Charles County.   

Contributions this period: $100,850
Contributions this cycle: $111,370
Cash on hand: $103,871
Debt: $0
Loans: $0
Total cash on hand for the campaign: $103,871

#2 SD 22 Sen. Wieland is term-limited in 2022.

PRIMARY: TOO SOON TO CALL  –  GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN 

This race has been changing since the last election. The biggest news so far is that Rep. Becky Ruth seems to be leaving elective office for a position in the administration. Conventional wisdom seems to be that her leaving the race favors Rep. Mary Elizabeth Coleman as she would be the only woman in what could be a four-person field. The lingering question is does Ruth leaving the race mean that Jefferson County Clerk Ken Waller leaves the state representative race and run for state Senate? Like Ruth, Waller lives right on the current SD 22 line. Speaking of potential candidates who live right on the current line, local attorney Derrick Good lives right on the line as well. 

From the start, it seemed that Coleman and Rep. Dan Shaul were committed to the race. Coleman is a talented campaigner, but both are going to have the same challenge of how to raise enough money to gain a significant advantage over the other. 

Then there is House Speaker Rob Vescovo. He seemed very interested in a run for Congress, but neither the 2nd nor the 8th have opened up. He floated a run for state auditor, but you wonder could be bonded? Then had his representatives contact the other candidates in the race and say he was going to run for Senate, which didn’t make Shaul look all that strong as he has told people that the speaker wasn’t running for Senate. Now it’s possible that Shaul uses his position as chairman of the redistricting committee to draw a district that Vescovo could run in to see him leave the state Senate race, but that would be quite an impressive political feat. Regardless, his over half a million dollars makes him the frontrunner when he files. 

The bottom line: The #SteinOfKnoweldge has always predicted that Speaker Rob Vescovo tries to run for everything else, then ultimately runs for state Senate, and does anyone really wanna bet against the stein? That means Vescovo will try and see if Sen. Bill Eigel can convince him that he will be for him, allowing Eigel to spend resources in other places when everyone knows he will be for Sen. Caleb Rowden in the end. Eigel is no fool, so assuming he doesn’t pick up the habit of getting taken for one, he will then have to choose between Reps. Mary Elizabeth Coleman and Dan Shaul — the winner of that will be the main contender. Coleman has the talent to potentially help lead his caucus after he runs for statewide office, but he will have to commit significant resources to either candidate to put them in contention against the speaker. The last question is: Does Ken Waller jump in? That probably makes Coleman an even more advantageous choice. Filing day will be interesting to see how many folks from JeffCo pay a visit to Secretary Jay Ashcroft. 

Rep. Mary Elizabeth Coleman
Contributions this period: $23,825
Contributions this cycle: $65,630
Cash on hand: $69,112
Debt: $0
Loans: $0

Conservative Solutions for Missouri PAC
Contributions this period: $0
Contributions this cycle: $15,750
Cash on hand: $15,324

Rep. Dan Shaul
Contributions this period: $30,742
Contributions this cycle: $38,772
Cash on hand: $40,398
Debt: $0
Loans: $0

JeffCo Vision PAC
Contributions this period: $19,850
Contributions this cycle: $26,450
Cash on hand: $33,542

Speaker Rob Vescovo
Contributions this period: $27,650
Contributions this cycle: $28,650
Cash on hand: $157,613
Debt: $0
Loans: $0

Mighty Missouri  PAC
Contributions this period: $32,600
Contributions this cycle: $443,013
Cash on hand: $410,375

#3 SD 26 Sen. Schatz is term-limited in 2022.

PRIMARY: TOO SOON TO CALL  –  GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN 

This will be a very classic primary of different styles, backgrounds, and allies with Rep. Aaron Griesheimer having the traditional Republicans behind him led by Sen. Caleb Rowden and the Sen. Bill Eigel faction backing Ben Brown, a restaurateur and a regional leader of the anti-mask mandate movement. 

Griesheimer comes to the race with a historical name in the county and support from most of the traditional families in Franklin County while Brown has an advantage in new grassroots supporters. He made an error in signing a letter chastising incumbent Sen. Dave Schatz, and while he has tried to walk it back, it seems like an unforced error. It probably plays well with some, but most people in Franklin County seem pretty proud to have one of their own in one of the top positions in state government. 

The bottom line: The conventional wisdom feels like as the district is currently drawn, it’s over 2/3rds Franklin County and 1/3rd St. Louis County. If that is the case, and Brown does well in St. Louis County, then he would only need to hold his own in Franklin to win. However, if the 26th goes west into Gasconade, Warren, etc. that would most likely favor Griesheimer. 

Rep. Aaron Griesheimer
Contributions this period: $32,771
Contributions this cycle: $39,296
Cash on hand: $73,938
Debt: $0
Loans: $0

Four Rivers PAC
Contributions this period: N/A
Contributions this cycle: N/A
Cash on hand: N/A

Ben Brown
Contributions this period: $22,139
Contributions this cycle: $65,564
Cash on hand: $54,336
Debt: $0
Loans: $0

#4 SD 10 Sen. Riddle is term-limited in 2022. 

PRIMARY: TOO SOON TO CALL  –  GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN 

This race will be all about redistricting. As it stands now, the likely candidates are Reps. Travis Fitzwater and Randy Pietzman as well as former Rep. Bryan Spencer. In the past, this district has been split in several different directions and could be again. The geographic split as of now would see Fitzwater’s Callaway County with around 5,700 primary voters, Pietzman’s rapidly growing Lincoln County with around 9,500 primary votes, and Warren County where Spencer would have some name ID with around 6,000 primary votes. 

It seems pretty clear that Fitzwater would have a pretty clear advantage in traditional fundraising while Sen. Bill Eigel could come to the financial rescue of  Pietzman as he did with now- Sens. Mike Moon and Rick Brattin last cycle. Spencer did contribute $100,000 to his campaign. Now the documentation shows it as a contribution and not a loan, so you assume he intends to spend the money. 

The most likely area that could be added to the district might be Wentzville which would be good territory in Spencer’s old House district. 

The bottom line: It’s all gonna come down to what the district looks like once the judges are done. Then, if it looks similar to the old 10th, Rep. Travis Fitzwater would have the advantage until Sen. Bill Eigel weighs in with financial resources. 

Rep. Travis Fitzwater
Contributions this period: $9,850
Contributions this cycle: $15,150
Cash on hand: $59,163
Debt: $0
Loans: $0

Kingdom Leadership PAC
Contributions this period: $500
Contributions this cycle: $1,500
Cash on hand: $3,041

Rep. Randy Pietzman
Contributions this period: $250
Contributions this cycle: $81,991
Cash on hand: $2,082
Debt: $0
Loans: $0

Rep. Bryan Spencer
Contributions this period: $6,440
Contributions this cycle: $126,171
Cash on hand: $142,189
Debt: $0
Loans: $0

#5 SD 12 Sen. Hegeman is term-limited in 2022.

PRIMARY: TOO SOON TO CALL  –  GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN 

The race to replace Sen. Dan Hegeman is really at a standstill until the maps are drawn. Currently, Rep. J. Eggleston is the only announced candidate who is out raising money and meeting voters and capped off his early efforts with a $100,000 loan to his campaign. 

If the district stays roughly the same, Eggleston is likely to be joined by Rep. Allan Andrews, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see former Rep. Casey Guernsey jump into the race he eyed eight years ago. 

However, there are plenty of folks who are eager to see Rep. Brenda Shields drawn into the district, and if she is in the 12th after the dust settles, she would be a top contender along with Rep. Rusty Black if he is ultimately in the new district. 

The bottom line: I think we are going to have to wait to see what the judges come up with before doing much serious handicapping on the race. If the lines are the same keep an eye on former Rep. Casey Guernsey. And as always in northwest Missouri, whoever Axiom signs will become the favorite. 

Rep. J Eggleston
Contributions this period: $112,661
Contributions this cycle: $112,661
Cash on hand: $164,160
Debt: $0
Loans: $100,000

Grand RiverPAC
Contributions this period: $750
Contributions this cycle: $750
Cash on hand: $750

Rep. Allen Andrews
Contributions this period: $0.35
Contributions this cycle: $41,257.51
Cash on hand: $13,917
Debt: $14.85
Loans: $0

#6 SD 20 Sen. Burlison is running for Congress. 

PRIMARY: LEAN TRENT –  GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN 

If there is something more that can be done to consolidate support in a state Senate primary than Rep. Curtis Trent has already, I really don’t know what it is. I think the fact he now seems to have one is more evidence of the consultant recruitment effect than anything else. 

When the dominos began to fall after Senator Roy Blunt announced his retirement, it took a few months for Congressman Billy Long to launch his bid, then see Sen. Eric Burlison launch his, and allow Trent to begin his campaign for higher office. Since he was able to run openly, he was able to clear the field of any of his fellow legislators and then begin raising money in earnest. 

Last week, Springfield businessman Brian Gelner jumped into the race and has a pedigree that could put together some money, but he has told people that he isn’t interested in self-funding the race. He will be able to enjoy the luxury of not having a record but will also have to work to put together an organization then Trent already has. 

The bottom line: This race starts out with Rep. Curtis Trent having the early advantage until folks see what kind of campaign that Brian Gelner can put together. 

Rep. Curtis Trent
Contributions this period: $23,073
Contributions this cycle: $23,073
Cash on hand: $147,826
Debt: $0
Loans: $0

417 PAC
Contributions this period: $4,902
Contributions this cycle: $7,902
Cash on hand: $8,440

#7 SD 24 Sen. Schupp is term-limited in 2022. 

PRIMARY: SAFE MCCREERY – GENERAL: LIKELY DEMOCRAT

The 24th has come a long way since electing then-moderate Republican John Lamping in 2010. First of all, redistricting took it farther north in 2014 when Sen. Jill Schupp won it, making it more Democratic. Then the trend of the district went farther Democratic at a time when the rest of the state was trending the other way. It’s possible that the 24th could be drawn more Republican and that might recruit another businessman with no record to make a run, but this part of St. Louis County is not friendly to Republicans. 

Rep. Tracy McCreery has aligned nearly every prominent Democratic endorsement in the 24th. Further, firefighters who have a significant history of backing winners in the 24th are behind her along with the Teamsters. She has done everything possible to hand the Democrats one of the easiest Democratic holds in a blueish district that could be done. 

The bottom line: Barring something very unexpected, Rep. Tracy McCreery will be the next senator from St. Louis County. However, these are Missouri Democrats we are discussing, so it would surprise literally no one who has observed Missouri Democrats since Jay Nixon last ran for office to see a primary challenger recruited who would drain her bank account who might be used to elect more Democrats to the Senate in 2024. 

Rep. Tracy McCreery
Contributions this period: $136,030
Contributions this cycle: $179,060
Cash on hand: $342,862
Debt: $0
Loans: $0

Serve Missouri PAC
Contributions this period: $19,000
Contributions this cycle: $19,000
Cash on hand: $20,296

#8 SD 30 Sen. Hough is seeking re-election. 

PRIMARY: SAFE HOUGH – GENERAL: LIKELY REPUBLICAN 

Sen. Lincoln Hough has been on a fundraising tear around the state and has the wind at his back in the toughest district currently held by a Republican senator. His ability to fundraise for his re-election has only been bested by his ability to bring home funds to Springfield from his role as the most influential member in either chamber or either party dealing with the state budget. Those two come together in analyzing his election as his fundraising will make him tough to primary, and his ability to deliver for Springfield make him very tough to beat in a general. 

The bottom line: In the current world of the Missouri Senate Republican Caucus, anything is possible so a primary is possible. However, even if he liquidated his war chest in a primary, 2022 looks like the kind of year that Sen. Lincoln Hough would still be re-elected, and it’s always possible that redistricting changes his district, and the only way to really change his district is to add more Republicans. 

Sen. Lincoln Hough
Contributions this period: $32,450
Contributions this cycle: $214,188
Cash on hand: $217,201
Debt: $0
Loans: $0

Lincoln PAC
Contributions this period: $109,600
Contributions this cycle: $163,650
Cash on hand: $163,650

#9 SD 8 Sen. Cierpiot is seeking re-election. 

PRIMARY: SAFE CIERPIOT – GENERAL: LIKELY REPUBLICAN 

Sen. Mike Cierpiot is seeking his final term in the Senate — which would put, between Mike and his wife Connie, around 25 years of being elected in the Lee’s Summit area. Because of the Democratic trend of the area his district could be pushed more into Kansas City proper and give a Democrat a real shot at the seat. That Democrat seems likely to be Rep. Keri Ingle, but it seems like an easy decision to wait four years for an open seat and hope the Lee’s Summit area keeps sliding more Democratic. 

The bottom line: 2022 looks like a real, real bad year for Democrats. Rep. Keri Ingle might be the next senator in waiting, but for the next four years, it looks like Sen. Mike Cierpiot will be representing the 8th. 

Sen. Mike Cierpiot
Contributions this period: $39,404
Contributions this cycle: $178,735
Cash on hand: $61,691
Debt: $0
Loans: $0

Jackson County LeadershipPAC
Contributions this period: $21,000
Contributions this cycle: $23,250
Cash on hand: $22,777

#10 SD 16 Sen. Brown is seeking re-election. 

PRIMARY: LIKELY BROWN –  GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN 

This is a race that should be as boring as any senate re-election, but could become a costly primary, and is indicative of the toxic nature of the Republican caucus. Sen. Brown will win re-election however, he has a pretty radical small group of detractors from the lake area that have recruited him a primary challenger named Scott Riedel. 

There was a PAC formed to raise money to fund a primary challenger and a pretty vitriolic email was sent out by former Sen. Jane Cunningham in an attempt to raise money for it, and thus far it’s been pretty anemic. The only primary challenger of any heft to put out feelers is former Rep. Doc Frederich of Rolla. However, he ran in the 2018 primary and lost to Brown. 

The bottom line: Sen. Justin Brown will be re-elected just as his father was. Brown is, most of the time, a member of the Caleb Caucus and is someone who is loved by the members of that caucus. If a serious primary challenge is pitted against him by the Eigel Caucus, then the lobbying corps, Brown’s colleagues, and his beloved family’s endless list of friends will come to his aid. In the end, a primary challenge against Brown has little hope and the resources spent on it could cost the Eigel Caucus resources that might decide races in Jefferson County or Franklin County, and would likely move Brown toward being a pretty radical supporter of Caleb Caucus. 

Sen. Justin Brown
Contributions this period: $36,495
Contributions this cycle: $566,935
Cash on hand: $65,165
Debt: $0
Loans: $0

JB PAC
Contributions this period: $36,843
Contributions this cycle: $43,843
Cash on hand: $35,250

Scott Faughn

Scott Faughn is the publisher of The Missouri Times, owner of the Clayton Times in Clayton; SEMO Times in Poplar Bluff; and host of the only statewide political television show, This Week in Missouri Politics.

The post State Senate Tipsheet: November 2021 appeared first on The Missouri Times.

Republican Vicki Hartzler is running for U.S. Senate.
The 4th district is still the most interesting because there is a field of qualified candidates and an entire field of potential candidates who will reshape the race if they get in. Senate Floor Leader Caleb Rowden could jump in and he would become the favorite — with his holdback being that there already are two candidates from Boone County in the race. 

The other senator who seems more likely than not to run is Sen. Rick Brattin. He would be an excellent congressional candidate who is in midterm and like Rowden, wouldn’t have to give up his seat to run. I think both are more likely than not to enter the race, but each week that goes by without them leads you to think they might not. 

Cass County Commissioner Ryan Johnson entered the race and withdrew, but he will be highly influential to whoever gets his support. I do think that he is likely to be at a Capitol someday; maybe he starts at the state Capitol. 

Former Rep. Caleb Jones and current Sen. Denny Hoskins are another two who would reshape the race but seem closer to not running than the other two. Now onto the folks who have announced. 

Kalena Bruce
Kalena Bruce is a cattle farmer who has a great deal of connections in the Missouri ag community and is the only candidate who not only has filed but is even rumored to run from the southern part of the district. 

She has some video on stage with Trump that you will probably see in the campaign and has some ability to self-fund as she has already put $80,000 into the race. She will have to make a decision next quarter if she can raise more money or is she going to primarily self-fund. If none of the four mentioned above jump in, she will have a chance to consolidate her base in the ag community and the southern part of the district and be the frontrunner after filing closes. 

Contributions this period: $100,610
Contributions this cycle: $100,610
Cash on hand: $160,558
Debt: $0
Loans: $80,100

Taylor Burks
Taylor Burks did what he needed to do: post a $100,000 quarter. He is a veteran who was previously appointed to be the Boone County clerk and has a story to tell. The question was: Would he have the resources to tell that story?

He would be the biggest beneficiary if Sen. Rowden doesn’t enter the race. If that is the case, and he can either continue raising or self-funding, then Burks will have a claim to being the frontrunner. 

Contributions this period: $109,498
Contributions this cycle: $109,498
Cash on hand: $168,607
Debt: $0
Loans: $76,715

Rep. Sara Walsh
Rep. Sara Walsh posted nearly $40,000 this quarter which is pretty strong for someone who is more known for grassroots than fundraising prowess and having to deal with a personal tragedy during the third quarter. 

It seems her campaign will either be won or lost depending on her ability to amass the largest number of conservative activists and try to hang competitive in the race long enough for an out-of-state group to boost her finances closer to August. 

It’s really to read much more into the quarter as she has been dealing with far bigger issues than a congressional race but should be commended for continuing forward and everyone can revisit her campaign later. 

Contributions this period: $39,060
Contributions this cycle: $39,060
Cash on hand: $24,144
Debts: $0
Loans: $10,000

7th District 

Republican Billy Long is running for U.S. Senate.
This race is one where you could make a case for all of the major candidates, and it could come down to geography as it appears that they will have different geography and lanes to run in. 

State Sen. Eric Burlison
Sen. Eric Burlison came out of the gate with a big fundraising haul and a couple of endorsements that could be key next summer. 

He has a conservative pedigree and perhaps the strongest relationships with the Republican activists in southwest Missouri. He probably has to find a way to get separation from Sen. Mike Moon and isolate the race as himself vs. former Sen. Jay Wasson. At the start, he is a top contender. 

Contributions this period: $147,536
Contributions this cycle: $147,536
Cash on hand: $143,862
Debts: $3,232

State Sen. Mike Moon
I have written many times on this tipsheet not to underestimate the campaign skills of Sen. Mike Moon, and in his burst out of a first-quarter raising $100,000, he made me look smart again. Some have said he can only play spoiler for someone, but I think he has every chance to win. If the negatives start flying between Jay Wasson and Eric Burlison, then Sen. Moon, if he can continue to raise money, can fly right between them and into Congress. 

Contributions this period: $103,847
Contributions this cycle: $103,847
Cash on hand: $96,865
Debts: $5,800

Former State Sen. Jay Wasson
Sen. Jay Wasson is perhaps the most successful state senator since term limits. He will start the race as the clear fundraising favorite as no one has better relationships in the Springfield business community than Wasson. 

If the other three candidates fight it out for the far-right activists, and Sen. Wasson establishes a lead in fundraising, he will be the favorite. 

He is in the mold of Senator Roy Blunt when he held the 7th congressional district for several terms before entering the Senate and has the real advantage of having the support of his friend, former Sen. Ron Richard. Can you imagine being the house in Joplin that tells Ron Richard he can’t put up a Wasson sign?

Contributions this period: N/A
Contributions this cycle: N/A
Cash on hand: N/A
Debts: N/A

Sam Alexander
He’s a farmer and an emergency room physician in Springfield. He has significant potential to self-fund and is the only candidate in the race who has never held public office. He will compete for the right-wing vote and cast his net as not just conservative, but very conservative. He’s a quiet but strong candidate who just may surprise a few folks. 

Contributions this period: $39,480
Contributions this cycle: $39,480
Cash on hand: $120,147
Debt: $0
Loans: $99,000

2nd District 

Republican Congresswoman Ann Wagner is seeking re-election. 

Congresswoman Ann Wagner
Everyone was predicting that CD 2 was going to be decided by a razor-thin margin in 2020 with President Trump on the ballot and a very good campaigner in state Sen. Jill Schupp, the Democratic nominee. However, Congresswoman Ann Wagner ended up winning by a comfortable margin. 

However, 2022 is not 2020. ‘22 is the mid-term of a less than overwhelming Biden presidency which should provide an advantage to Wagner. While there are some talented Democrats running, Jill Schupp was a big figure who from the start would outshine them. Lastly, 2022’s CD 2 won’t be the same CD 2 as 2020. It will be more Republican. Now, don’t look for Missouri Republicans to be as clearly shamelessly crooked as Illinois Democrats, but CD 2 will be redder. With all those factors in mind, this is probably the last cycle CD 2 is even tracked as long as Congresswoman Wagner serves in it. 

Contributions this period: $500,153
Contributions this cycle: $1,741,157
Cash on hand: $1,352,211
Debts: $0

State Rep. Trish Gunby

Rep. Trish Gunby fits the profile of the district pretty well, and she proved her ability on the campaign trail when she flipped a Republican state rep seat Democratic. She could start the race possibly expecting the same support as Sen. Schupp and try to build out. However, while she has raised her first $100,000, she has an opponent in the race who has raised six times that, and in the best-case scenario, she would start a general election campaign with no money. 

Contributions this period: $130,086
Contributions this cycle: $130,086
Cash on hand: $81,330
Debts: $0

Ben Samuels
Ben Samuels is a businessman with family money who has previously worked for the mayor of Chicago. He has immense connections to wealth, but more importantly, he has been able to tap those connections to jump out to a huge fundraising lead. 

Some Democrats hope he could be another Courtney VanOstran who only lost by 4 percent in 2018. It appeared that the lack of a record and being under the radar was a benefit and maybe a better matchup for Democrats than in 2020. 

Contributions this period: $636,720
Contributions this cycle: $636,720
Cash on hand: $552,466
Debts: $0

Ray Reed
Ray Reed is the youngest candidate in the field and is a former Nixon and Missouri Democratic Party staffer. He is trying to tap some of the college students in the area to get behind his efforts. The bottom line is that Reed is no different than anyone else in that he will have to raise money — and fast — to mount a serious campaign. 

Reed is going to work a grassroots campaign and try to at least make a name for himself to run again in the future. Keep an eye on him. If 2022 isn’t his year, he will likely have one soon. 

Contributions this period: N/A
Contributions this cycle: N/A
Cash on hand: N/A
Debts: N/A

Scott Faughn

Scott Faughn is the publisher of The Missouri Times, owner of the Clayton Times in Clayton; SEMO Times in Poplar Bluff; and host of the only statewide political television show, This Week in Missouri Politics.

The post Congressional Races Tipsheet: October 2021 appeared first on The Missouri Times.

Republican candidates 

Former Gov. Eric Greitens
It’s really hard to put much stock in polling this early, and I think everyone has learned not to never believe polling produced by a candidate, but you have to think this race started with former Gov. Eric Greitens around 40 percent. His name ID from his previous campaign and his arrests and quitting his job as governor has to be close to 100 percent, and he was the first candidate in the race. However, you knew that would be his high watermark. Where that floor is now is the question, and you have to think that every new candidate that gets in the race probably increases his odds even slightly. 

His appeal will be to anyone angry about anything; he will be their guy. Now, I know what you’re thinking — that Republican primaries have lots of family values voters. Well, we learned from early ‘18 that many of them are just simply lying about caring about values. It will be interesting to see how many of them are with Greitens this time, and watch everyone snicker if they ever mention the word values again. 

When this race began, I figured his ceiling was around 33-35 percent and his floor was somewhere around 25 percent, and I’d still figure that he can’t get more than 35 percent of Republican primary voters down in that basement, but as the campaign has gone on, I tend to think his floor may be a little lower, around 20 percent or so. His own polling shows he is down to 36 percent, so you can figure it currently stands quite a bit lower in reality. 

His fundraising has been pretty lackluster in comparison to his ‘16 run, and he seems to have problems with getting successful people to have their name publicly attached to his on an FEC report. However, his spending seems to entail paying anyone who has ever met Donald Trump to tweet something nice about him which has led to a huge burn rate — leaving him, as of today, with little more than $50,000 to spend. His PAC got a huge boost last quarter to try and change the narrative, and another distraction might be in order this month. 

Thus far, the campaign has been unimpressive with him traveling anywhere in the country not to be around Missourians. It reminds me of the unfocused vanity show that his gubernatorial campaign was before Austin Chambers arrived in the state. There was no doubt he became a terrific politician, but the early months were a lot like this. He did pull a flash of the old Greitens when, hearing that some allies of Senator Mitch McConnell were unlikely to help his campaign, he publicly came out against the Republican Senate leader. You know in some ways Washington almost deserves him. I suppose there are some Missourians who don’t expect the candidate to actually show up in, you know, Missouri, but are there enough be duct-taped to his campaign? 

If he hits his ceiling of 35 percent he wins; if it lands near a floor of 20 percent he loses. What if he ends up with 27 percent?

Contributions this period: $378,749
Contributions this cycle: $754,031
Cash on hand: $200,802
Debt: $143,428
Loans: $0
Cash on hand minus debt: $57,374

Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt
In the beginning, Attorney General Eric Schmitt’s campaign’s success was mostly seen in fundraising, but he has developed a new strategy of: wake up in the morning, sue Joe Biden, go to bed, and repeat. 

And it’s working. 

The strategy was maligned by some at first. Then, he scored a huge win in court over St. Louis County and has seen his campaign begin to take off. 

From his social media to his Lincoln Day speeches to his air time on national cable outlets to his fundraising, he has clear momentum in this race early on. 

Speaking of fundraising he led the field with $650K this quarter — twice what Greitens raised — and has over $1 million in the bank after his debts. That combined with his Save Missouri Values PAC (which reportedly has over $1.5 million on hand) gives him the early fundraising lead. If this race will come down to Greitens vs. a Republican without sexual assault baggage, Schmitt is making a strong early case to be that Republican. 

Contributions this period: $651,825
Contributions this cycle: $1,986,220
Cash on hand: $1,199,448
Debt: $109,338
Loans: $0
Cash on hand minus debt: $1,090,110 

Congresswoman Vicky Hartzler
Congresswoman Vicky Hartzler is doing everything she needs to do at this stage to set up her shot next summer. She is racking up endorsements of evangelical conservatives including Penny Young Nance, president and CEO of Concerned Women for America; Nebraska Senator Deb Fischer; Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council; Maggie’s List; David Barton; and former Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann.

Those combined with what she hopes will be support in the agricultural community and the fact that she is the only woman in the race, means she will have a real shot next year. 

If she can consolidate that base of evangelicals, women, and the ag community, then she could be the candidate to step forward if the two Erics unload their multi-million dollar war chests against each other. 

She brought in around $450K this quarter, but the strength of her fundraising comes from the large bankroll she had on hand before the race began. With $1.6 million, she has the largest hard money war chest of the race, and she isn’t spending hers as fast as others in the race. She has a PAC forming called Americans for Conservative Government, and legendary Missourian Peter Herschend is having an event next month for it. 

Contributions this period: $446,299
Contributions this cycle: $1,507,234
Cash on hand: $1,651,443
Debts: $6,841
Loans: $0
Cash on hand minus debt: $1,644,602

Congressman Billy Long
Congressman Billy Long posted a healthy quarter raising over half a million dollars. I’ve always said that if every Missourian sat down and spent 10 minutes with all of the candidates, Billy Long would be the frontrunner. 

He has a simple message of being fed up, and his congressional district is a tremendous base to launch a five-way Republican primary out of. I think the real test will be his fundraising next quarter to see where he is in the race. 

Contributions this period: $552,797
Contributions this cycle: $857,595
Cash on hand: $539,853
Debts: $0
Loans: $0
Cash on hand minus debt: $539,853

Mark McCloskey
There is undeniable enthusiasm in this race for Mark McCloskey. He is a hit at Lincoln Days and folks actually sit up and listen to his speeches. The question will be: Can he take all of those folks who want a picture with him for their Facebook pages and turn them into activists supporting his campaign?

He raised a quarter-million dollars which is great for someone not in office, but that burn rate is going to raise some eyebrows. 

The campaign has had some turnover internally, and first-time efforts are usually a learning experience. But if McCloskey can get his campaign organized to focus the enthusiasm into actually helping him get votes, then he will be a real force in this race. Imagine where he would be in this race if he just put on a pink shirt and took that AR with him everywhere?

Contributions this period: $260,724
Contributions this cycle: $821,979
Cash on hand: $92,146
Debts: $0
Loans: $0
Cash on hand minus debt: $92,146

Democratic candidates

Former state Sen. Scott Sifton
Scott Sifton is a tremendous candidate, maybe the most effective Democratic state senator of the last decade, and honestly, the party leadership probably should have cleared this field for him. But there is a reason Missouri Democrats are in the shape they are in. 

He will have the support of most in labor and the trial bar. He has been hitting the road, and I’ve even seen him start to make some news show spots. 

Remember, Sifton was one of the first suburban candidates to win a primary as the pro-choice candidate against a pro-life Catholic Democrat. Then he flipped that state Senate seat in 2012, defeating an incumbent. 

He is a callback to Gov. Nixon or Senator McCaskill, you remember, when Democrats were actually competitive in statewide races. However, it appears he is going to have to empty his coffers to win this primary. 

Contributions this period: $222,210
Contributions this cycle: $718,501
Cash on hand: $156,957
Debts: $0
Loans: $0
Cash on hand minus debt: $156,957

Lucas Kunce
This dude can fundraise. Lucas Kunce is a former Democratic candidate for state representative from Jeff City — losing to local hero Mark Bruns no less — and a Marine veteran who has done an amazing job of raising money with $850K this quarter and more than $1.7 million overall. 

While he is raising money, he is spending it, too, with just over $670K on hand. However, a lot of it is from his small-dollar donors who he can stack up and go back to as the race unfolds, but they are costly to identify and develop. 

He is doing all he can to attach his campaign and its viability to that of Jason Kander’s 2016 run and is attacking pretty much everyone in Washington, even calling himself an outsider. 

I’m thinking that his fundraising pace might not continue as it is, but it will continue, and he is clearly in the race to stay. The question that he and really everyone on the Democratic side have to ask themselves is: While your running, praying you get to run against Eric Greitens, can you compete if one of the Republicans not accused of sexual assault is the nominee?

Contributions this period: $849,206
Contributions this cycle: $1,743,633
Cash on hand: $670,241
Debts: $0
Loans: $0
Cash on hand minus debt: $670,241

Spencer Toder
He is an interesting Democratic candidate. While his fundraising numbers are not competitive, Spencer Toder says he is trying a “new and innovative” approach of trying to help people with his resources.

This quarter he raised $45K and used a lot of it to fill storage units with supplies to aid refugees from Afghanistan. He has seemed to focus his time on meeting with and recruiting activists to help his efforts. I guess we will see if the innovative approach is successful, and he is becoming interesting to watch. 

Contributions this period: $12,003
Contributions this cycle: $45,355
Cash on hand: $9,207
Debts: $100,494
Loans: $84,000
Cash on hand minus debt: -$91,287

Timothy Shepard
Nice guy, very nice guy. However, Timothy Shepard’s campaign is struggling. He lost most of his staff a few weeks ago with some going public in attacking him. Now he hasn’t filled out an FEC report, and his Twitter account is complaining about money in politics. U.S. Senate races are very, very hard. 

Contributions this period: N/A
Contributions this cycle: N/A
Cash on hand: N/A
Debts: N/A
Cash on hand minus debt: N/A

Scott Faughn

Scott Faughn is the publisher of The Missouri Times, owner of the Clayton Times in Clayton; SEMO Times in Poplar Bluff; and host of the only statewide political television show, This Week in Missouri Politics.

The post US Senate Tipsheet: October 2021 appeared first on The Missouri Times.

With practically the entire Democratic Caucus in their mid-term, it’s not likely that the Democrats lose any seats, but at the same time, it’s hard to see where they pick up any. The sheer partisan breakdown starts off with 10 returning Republicans and seven returning Democrats. 

However, there are another 10 seats the Democrats have literally no chance to even be competitive in — taking the totals to 20 Republicans and nine Democrats. Then there is SD 22, where it might take a miracle for the Democrats to compete, taking it to a 21 to eight Republican majority. Then you have three more likely Republican seats with incumbents up for re-election in SD 8, SD 30, and SD 34, and likely Democratic retention in SD 24. And without redistricting changing the dynamic, you have a projected 24-10 Republican supermajority returning to the Capitol. 

That leaves the real Senate drama: the internal fight within the Republican Caucus. With Sen. Cindy O’Laughlin seemingly out of the Conservative Caucus, you have seven out of the 24 that could unite behind one of their own for leadership. If Sen. Bill Eigel is the one they put up, he could pull away a couple of others. Of those seven, only Sen. Bob Onder is term-limited. On the other side, the only three races where the Republicans could lose a seat, all three are not in their caucus, but all three are also highly unlikely to lose their seats. However, Sen. Caleb Rowden could be in Congress come time to vote which would not only take away one of their 17 but their candidate for Pro Tem. 

In order for the Conservative Caucus to break through to the 13 members, they would need in order to elect a leadership slate, they need one of their members to replace Sen. Bob Onder to bring them back to seven, and then sweep the primaries in SD 10, SD 12, SD 22, and SD 26 — taking them to 11. Even then, they would have to either go after a couple of the incumbents in long shot primaries or cut a deal to bring over a member by offering them a plum chairmanship or Sen. Bill Eigel would have to draw on one of his personal friendships to forge a tie. 

We have ranked the open seats by competitiveness as they are currently drawn. 

#1 SD 2 Senator Onder is term limited. 

This primary will be the most expensive and probably nastiest primary in the state. Sen. Bob Onder has earned a reputation as a conservative firebrand, and in many ways, the candidates running to replace him have tried to emulate his example. His endorsement will be one that perhaps carries the most of any term-limited senator this cycle. 

Rep. John Wiemann
The Speaker Pro Tem of the House is a very good fundraiser with solid roots in the district and has had his eye on the seat since he was first elected to the House. He has a reputation as a top legislator with a serious resume and clearly the confidence of his colleagues as they overwhelmingly elected him to leadership. He will have a lot of institutional support both in the district and the Jefferson City donor community. 

Rep. John Wiemann
Contributions this cycle: $3,500
Cash on hand: $102,399.58
JW Leadership Fund PAC
Cash on hand: $49,229.19

Rep. Nick Schroer
Rep. Schroer is a political talent that has the rare skill of being a leading figure on several controversial social issues and while at the same time earning a reputation in the Capitol as a serious legislator. He has increased his profile among conservative activists with his work in radio that he has done for years. The $200,000 contribution got his PAC started off right and ensures that he will be competitive in the race until the end with a shot at being the most likely candidate to reach $1 million. 

There will be the issue of whether he lives in the district. It’s very likely that with redistricting, it will enable anyone to run regardless of their address, and it might even be drawn to include his current home. However, if not, it’s likely his opponents attack him on it. However, west St. Charles County is a place that, per capita, has seen more people move there in the last 20 years than probably anywhere in the state so you have to wonder what it would matter to someone who more recently moved there themselves. 

Rep. Nick Schroer
Contributions this cycle: $10,431.00
Cash on hand: $49,438.98
1776 PAC
Cash on hand: $200,000.00

Rep. Justin Hill
Rep. Hill has been seeking attention to attempt to make this run since his election to the House. He has heavily courted Sen. Onder’s support and attempted to get in the news coverage of any issue that might get him some attention. The entry into the race of Rep. Schroer is likely unhelpful to his efforts, but he has to hope that he can also take some of the more institutional support from Wiemann without taking too much of the activist support from Hill. He will have to improve his fundraising to win this race, but he does have the political instincts to appeal to conservative activists. 

Rep. Justin Hill
Contributions this cycle: $100
Cash on hand: $6,035.95

#2 SD 22 Senator Paul Wieland is term limited. 

Jefferson County is accustomed to highly competitive races, but this year it will have highly competitive primary elections that determine who goes to Jefferson City. You have to assume the 22nd gets smaller and that likely means compacting to the north of the district. 

While JeffCo is all MAGA, there are a couple of Democrats who could make the race competitive. The head of Local 655, Dave Cook, would be good, as well as former Rep. Tim Meadows to mount credible campaigns, but neither has confirmed a run. 

Rep. Mary Elizabeth Coleman
Rep. Coleman has steeled a reputation as a pro-life champion, and in prior races, she has put together a reputation as a solid fundraiser. She will be the best in the race giving a speech and has done some things to build support in the district — such as her proposal to name a portion of I-55 the President Donald Trump Highway. She has put together a solid team and was the first out of the gate into the race. It’s worth noting that while most donors hate giving early in multi-candidate primaries in districts that aren’t even drawn yet, she is the top fundraiser. 

Rep. Mary Elizabeth Coleman
Contributions this cycle: $20,150.00
Cash on hand: $54,820.37
Conservative Solutions for Missouri PAC
Cash on hand: $15,333.79

Rep. Becky Ruth
Rep. Ruth has the most noted legislative record of anyone in the field and will have considerable support from those in the construction and labor industries. She has a solid network in the district and will have a lot of the same issue set that Sen. Wieland used to help flip Jefferson County red. It is possible that she would have to move north if the district is moved north — which at this point seems likely. 

Rep. Becky Ruth
Contributions this cycle: $3,950.00
Cash on hand: $41,067.40
Show Me JeffCo PAC
Cash on hand: $7,281.55

Rep. Dan Shaul
Rep. Shaul is in the central part of the district that more closely identifies with its communities and its leaders more than the more suburban Arnold area and has been planning a Senate run for a long time. He has a conservative voting record and has been reaching out to big donors trying to make his pitch for funding. His campaign will be interesting to watch the next six months before session to see if he can bank some money that might attract more money after session. 

Rep. Dan Shaul
Contributions this cycle: $7,900.00
Cash on hand: $17,675.75
JeffCo Vision PAC
Cash on hand: $14,229.56

Rep. Rob Vescovo
It seems likely that the sitting House speaker is intent on keeping a big chunk of the money in his PAC instead of giving it to the caucus which puts him as a top candidate for another office. It’s been speculated he would like to run for Congress, but as of writing this, that seat isn’t open. He has floated his name for state auditor, but the race that most likely keeps him on the gubment dole is a Senate run — so odds are he runs for Senate. 

While he will have the biggest war chest, he will have to spend a lot of that framing some of the obstacles he has such as blocking legislation to take murder cases away from St. Louis Circuit Attorney Kim Gardner. While it’s possible he runs for higher office, our prediction is that he flinches on those more challenging races and settles on a Senate run in the 22nd. 

Rep. Rob Vescovo
Contributions this cycle: $0
Cash on hand: $157,103.79
Mighty Missouri PAC
Cash on hand: $381,283.84

#3 SD 26 Senator Dave Schatz is term limited. 

Freedom-loving Franklin County will have another primary maybe on par with 2012 when then Rep. Brian Nieves was successful. As of now, the two leading candidates are Rep. Aaron Griesheimer, a member of one of the most well-known families in the county, and Ben Brown, a restaurant owner who has come to regional notoriety opposing St. Louis County mask and shutdown orders. 

Outside of the two announced candidates, there are several others eyeing the race — most notably current Franklin County commissioner and former Rep. Dave Hinson. Also, Rep. Bruce DeGroot, Wildwood Mayor Jim Bowlin, and several are promoting Franklin County Presiding Commissioner Tim Brinker. Obviously redistricting will play a large role in this race. Most of the focus will be on the current St. Louis County portion of the district. Franklin County’s population has exploded as has the St. Louis County portion of the district. You assume Franklin County will remain in one district so there will be less non-Franklin County population; whether that means less St. Louis County or the district picks up Warren County or Gasconade County remains to be seen. 

Rep. Aaron Griesheimer
He will have a lot of traditional Franklin County Republican support, and having earned a reputation as a serious legislator, he will have a good deal of institutional support from Jefferson City sources. He will start off the favorite with a few of the breaks more likely to go his way. You start assuming that the more Franklin County the district is, the better for him. You also have to assume if the district was to turn west or north and not include St. Louis County, that is good for him. However, the biggest variable is something he can influence and that is to see the fewer Franklin County candidates the better. If he can be the only elected official in a Franklin County district that is more Franklin County than it is now, then he is the favorite. 

Rep. Aaron Griesheimer
Contributions this cycle: $3,525.00
Cash on hand: $50,757.55
Four Rivers PAC
Cash on hand: N/A

Ben Brown
Ben Brown has risen to fame as the St. Louis County restaurant owner who sued St. Louis County over the occupancy restrictions put on his business. He has continued to keep his profile high speaking out against mask orders and has connected well with some in the conservative base. While he is a Franklin County resident, the more of west St. Louis County that is in the 26th after redistricting the better for him. You look to him to be attempting to consolidate Conservative Caucus support, and he has to hope that no St. Louis County candidates enter the race. He is a good candidate and seems to be running regardless, but it would be disappointing to his efforts if St. Louis County were completely cut out of the 26th. 

Ben Brown
Contributions this cycle: $17,740.00
Cash on hand: $37,681.32

#4 SD 10 Senator Jeannie Riddle is retiring. 

SD 10 is the district that historically has changed as much as any in the state. In 2008, when now Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe was elected, Callaway County was in the Cole County district. The redistricting pen changed that and created a seat where Callaway County was in the district and then-Rep. Jeannie Riddle won going away. 

If the district stays the same, then look for a three-way race between Reps. Travis Fitzwater, Randy Pietzman, and Bryan Spencer. The current district has Lincoln County with 34 percent of the vote where Pietzman would try to build a base. Spencer, who has put $100,000 of his own money into the race, is from Warren County which has 20 percent of the vote while Fitzwater is from Callaway County with 22 percent of the vote. However, Fitzwater is likely to have the fundraising advantage in the race which would put him in the best position to reach out to the rest of the district while Pietzman is likely going to have to hope that a major donor funds his PAC like now-Sens. Rick Brattin and Mike Moon last cycle. 

This race really won’t get started until you know who is in it because it could leave either Pietzman or Fitzwater outside of it. 

Rep. Randy Pietzman
Contributions this cycle: $0
Cash on hand: $3,513.57

Rep. Travis Fitzwater
Contributions this cycle: $4,000.00
Cash on hand: $50,747.16

Rep. Bryan Spencer
Contributions this cycle: $520.00
Cash on hand: $137,462.08

#5 SD 12 Senator Dan Hegeman is retiring. 

This race, perhaps more than any other, is dependent on redistricting. There are two pretty certain candidates in the current district in Reps. Allen Andrews and J. Eggleston. Then there are several candidates on the edge of the district such as Reps. Rusty Black and Brenda Shields. 

As it stands now, the 12th will likely have to add some population although the Clay County portion of the district has grown. Whether that is south or into Buchanan County or east into the 18th will be a question for the judges. 

Rep. Eggleston is from DeKalb County and will stake out some ground on the right while Rep. Andrews from the northern part of the district in Worth County will stake out some centrist and social conservative ground. 

This race more than any other is a bit stalled until the districts are drawn. 

Rep. Allen Andrews
Contributions this cycle: $0.42
Cash on hand: $19,057.33

Rep. J. Eggleston
Contributions this cycle: $52.20
Cash on hand: $53,586.92
Grand River PAC
Cash on hand: N/A

#6 SD 24 Senator Jill Schupp is retiring. 

Ten years ago, the 24th was drawn to be slightly more Democratic, but electoral trends have made it more Democratic than the redistricting pen could have. While a slightly more Republican-drawn district was won by former Sen. John Lamping in 2010, there are a couple of caveats — one being that it was the 2010 wave year for Republicans, and two, John Lamping was elected as a moderate, pro-labor Republican. His strength of being a pro-life Catholic was helpful, but him being a very strong candidate and his moderate positions carried the day. 

This district was won by Sen. Jill Schupp in a close election against now Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft 50 percent to 47 percent in 2014 and was re-elected handily in 2018. 

Rep. Tracy McCreery
Rep. Tracy McCreery is the clear front-runner in the race complete with the support of the incumbent and most local leaders. The Republicans’ options in this district are slim, but when redistricting is complete House Majority Leader (and by then, Speaker) Dean Plocher could be in the district, and he has considered a Senate run in the past. However, this district might be more suitable for a person without a record in the mold of John Lamping, like a Jack Spooner or one of the many successful businessmen in the district. 

However, the only two ways to seriously see a slow down on Rep. McCreery’s path to the Senate is redistricting radically changing the map (which seems unlikely) or keep in mind these are Missouri Democrats and you could see some radical primary challengers deplete her resources and make the race more appealing to a Republican with resources. 

Either scenario seems like a long shot and the 24th is on track to being the most boring open-seat race in 2022. 

Rep. Tracy McCreery
Contributions this cycle: $41,730.00
Cash on hand: $220,594.84

Likely Republican seats

While the Senate begins the cycle with a 24-10 Republican advantage, and with a Democrat in the White House, without some redistricting surprises, there probably won’t be much of a change. 

However, if the Democrats are going to pick up any ground, it’s probably going to be in SD 8, SD 30, or SD 34. The problem is that each of these seats have incumbents running for re-election and each are excellent campaigners who won the tough districts for a reason. Let’s take a look at them. 

SD 8 Senator Mike Cierpiot is seeking re-election. 

The 8th is in southwest Jackson County anchored by Lee’s Summit where a Cierpiot has been on the ballot for most of the last two decades — and winning, mind you. Sen. Cierpiot won with 54 percent four years ago against a good candidate in a district that is trending Democratic. However, four years ago, he raised a quarter of a million in his candidate committee and over twice that in his PAC, and as chairman of the powerful Commerce, Consumer Protection, Energy and the Environment Committee, he will outpace those numbers next year. 

However, as the district now stands, he has up and coming Democratic star Rep. Keri Ingle in his district. She flipped a red seat after Gary Cross was term-limited and will likely be the favorite even in a red district in 2026 when she would be term-limited herself. Without a redistricting surprise, it just makes too much sense for her not to wait for an open seat and watch the district continue to trend toward her. 

Sen. Cierpiot is very well-respected both in the Senate and back home. Look for him to return to the Senate, possibly in a leadership position. 

Sen. Mike Cierpiot
Contributions this cycle: $6,825.00
Cash on hand: $29,560.37
Jackson County Leadership PAC
Cash on hand: $2,277.70

SD 30 Senator Lincoln Hough is seeking re-election. 

The senator from Springfield has had perhaps the best first term of any state senator of the term limits era, and combined with a Democrat in the White House and his likely elevation after the election to being the Senate Appropriations chairman, he is about as safe as any senator who won with 53 percent of the vote four years ago can be. 

However, one of his current constituents is House Minority Leader Crystal Quade who owns a very high profile in Springfield herself, and one of four or five Democrats in all of Missouri who could mount a credible swing seat campaign. She terms out of the House in 2024, and many people are encouraging her to mount a statewide campaign then, but she has been mentioned as a possible Senate candidate. While redistricting could help a Democratic challenger’s chances in the 8th or the 34th, pretty much any change in the 30th would add more Republicans and make it an even more uphill climb. 

In the end, it probably makes too much sense for her not to wait a term and watch the city of Springfield continue to trend her way. 

Either way, it seems very likely that Sen. Hough returns to Jefferson City as Appropriations chairman in 2023.

Sen. Lincoln Hough
Contributions this cycle: $4,000.00
Cash on hand: $192,970.12
Lincoln PAC
Cash on hand: $65,627.66

SD 34 Senator Tony Luetkemeyer is seeking re-election. 

The senator from Platte is the least likely of the three to face a significant challenge, but he did first win the seat with only 52 percent in 2018. Redistricting could see him losing Buchanan County and going down into Kansas City or into Clay County. A radical redistricting map is about the only way that he is in trouble. He has a record of legislative accomplishment and a significant fundraising base. He is in very good shape for re-election. 

However, he does have one constituent who has been universally impressive in her first year in the House: Rep. Ashley Aune. She is obviously going to be a star for the Democrats, but it would seem foolish to waste that star on challenging an incumbent state senator in an area that is becoming more friendly to Democrats. 

Look for Sen. Luetkemeyer to return without much of a challenge. 

Sen. Tony Luetkemeyer
Contributions this cycle: $32,325.00
Cash on hand: $477,436.85
Tony PAC
Cash on hand: $102,060.99

Safe Republican seats

SD 6 Sen. Mike Bernskoetter
Contributions this cycle: $0
Cash on hand: $148,588.30

SD 16 Sen. Justin Brown
Contributions this cycle: $4,938.13
Cash on hand: $55,971.33
JB PAC
Cash on hand: $4,394.35

SD 18 Sen. Cindy O’Laughlin
Contributions this cycle: $3,609.00
Cash on hand: $80,229.73
North Missouri Leadership PAC
Cash on hand: $274.10

SD 20 Sen. Eric Burlison
Contributions this cycle: $2,397.57
Cash on hand: $430,052.82

SD 28 Sen. Sandy Crawford
Contributions this cycle: $2,000
Cash on hand: $239,415.44

SD 32 Sen. Bill White
Contributions this cycle: $4,725.00
Cash on hand: $42,931.50
Southwest Missouri Patriot PAC
Cash on hand: $6,861.00

Safe Democrat seats

SD 4 Sen. Karla May
Contributions this cycle: N/A
Cash on hand: N/A

SD 14 Sen. Brian Williams
Contributions this cycle: $100.00
Cash on hand: $161,245.80
B PAC
Cash on hand: $39,394.60

Scott Faughn

Scott Faughn is the publisher of The Missouri Times, owner of the Clayton Times in Clayton; SEMO Times in Poplar Bluff; and host of the only statewide political television show, This Week in Missouri Politics.

The post State Senate Tipsheet: July 2021 appeared first on The Missouri Times.